What other deals have to happen before the Cardinals will move on a trade for Arenado?
The antiquated adage is that it only takes one phone call to make a deal.
In reality, trades like the one the St. Louis Cardinals are attempting to execute with Nolan Arenado are often multi-month processes, business transactions drawn out to their most complex, and something less than calling cards but more than signposts in the legacies that baseball operations types are drawing up in the corners of their minds.
It is ostensibly true that even in the minutes spent writing, the Los Angeles Dodgers, for instance, could call John Mozeliak, offer a perfect package and to take on all of Arenado’s remaining contract, and stroll off into the sunset with vital business done easily.
That is not at all a realistic description of how the coming days and weeks are likely to operate, despite pronouncements from the Cardinals front office that they didn’t expect the winter’s biggest work to drag into January.
There have been some signs of progress over the last week. At least one team called the Cardinals to inquire on Arenado only to hear that things were pointed another direction. That would imply comfort in their positioning, and at least some certainty that they would be able to get a deal done with one of Arenado’s preferred teams without baking in too much excess negotiation.
One issue that arises when so many teams are operating from roughly the same collection and interpretation of data is that they come to mostly the same conclusions. Teams which might trade for Arenado understand the potential downfalls to that deal in just the same way the Cardinals do.
Aging is irreversible and performance downfalls tend to trail it; Arenado himself is coming off of one of his worst offensive seasons, and he comes with an acquisition cost in talent as well as in dollars.
None of that is obviously untrue, but it is inconvenient from the Cardinals from the perspective of getting a deal done. It also helps to define the order of operations. There is an expectation that Alex Bregman’s free agency will need to reach its conclusion before an Arenado deal comes to fruition, in large part because Bregman (surrendered draft picks aside) comes attached to only a financial but not a talent cost. The players a team would lose for signing Bregman are only hypothetical; even the most detached front offices are liable to do a little hugging of their own prospects.
The weekend’s big deal which saw outfielder Kyle Tucker shipped from Houston to the Chicago Cubs seemed like an important dam breaking. It was a demonstration that the Astros had settled on a direction, and even if they hadn’t yet revealed it publicly, it seemed clear that their choice on bringing back the incumbent Bregman had been made.
Bregman’s choice would have the multiplicative effect of not only clearing up the third base market but also taking an option off the board. Chandler Rome of The Athletic reported Saturday that the Astros had stepped up their pursuit of Arenado, which would stand to reason if they’re skittish about the financial investment which Bregman will require. And Bregman, if it’s not Houston, would have a limited selection of new teams which would fit him, several of which overlap with the Arenado market. The Boston Red Sox, for instance, wouldn’t have a need for two third basemen, no matter how loud the protests from the agent of one that he’d be willing to play first base.
The lull of major activity following that trade has been a curious one. Broad industry sentiment upon leaving the winter meetings last week was that the progress which followed Juan Soto’s free agent deal with the New York Mets was only going to steamroll. That followed in a string of signings and trades, but hasn’t yet reached the feverish pitch that was expected for the week before Christmas. Baseball executives, after all, are human; no one wants to be working between Christmas and New Year’s, and no one wants to have their lives upended in the midst of the holidays. Much easier and more decorous to get things done ahead of time.
That is still likelier to happen than not. There have been no sudden, shocking outside forces that have re-frozen the market place.
While those close to Arenado are perhaps not waiting hour to hour for developments, there’s no sign at all that the Cardinals are getting cold feet or that a market hasn’t developed. Far from it; the Cardinals, after all, are narrowing that market, circling around the deals which make sense in the places they’re wanted.
The wait still will likely be shorter than that for the presents under the tree. One way or another this process is approaching its endgame, even as the shape of the process seems inscrutable and bizarre. If this feels uncomfortable or unfamiliar – the Cardinals trying to shed a superstar player because he believes he can win more somewhere else – that’s likely because it simply hasn’t happened in St. Louis in a generation.
That’s the new reality, and in many ways, that’s the clock that the Cardinals are so eager to reset.
