Failed winter blocks path for Cardinals’ prospects, diminishes Arenado’s tenure
If a team achieves none of what it says are its three most important priorities in a given off-season, what does it say about that team’s winter?
And if they arrive at spring training still stuck in the same spot, what are the downstream impacts that might bleed over into a new chapter of a story that they’re bound and determined to write?
It is perhaps to the credit of the St. Louis Cardinals, wrapping up their last winter under John Mozeliak’s leadership as president of baseball operations, that they were transparent about their chosen path forward. It was Mozeliak who identified trading Nolan Arenado as “priority one, two and three” earlier this month, and it will be Mozeliak who will have to answer pointed questions in the coming weeks about his failure to do so, should it reach that point.
“It’s something that I think in time, he and I will have to talk through if the reality is he’s going to have to join us for camp, and then what that looks like,” Mozeliak said on January 18. “For now, it’s– I’d like to say business as usual, but it’s not been business as usual. It’s been very different. We’ll continue to try to find a place that he’s happy with, and we’ll use our time as best we can on that.”
For a period last weekend, it appeared as though the dam was about to burst.
Ryan Pressly’s trade from the Houston Astros to Chicago Cubs cleared some salary space for Houston, and suddenly the smoke around third baseman Alex Bregman’s possible return to the only team he’s played for appeared on the verge of erupting into a fire.
In the days since, that’s been doused. The central role the Astros have played in this winter’s lack of Cardinals drama – they reached a deal to trade Arenado to Houston which he rejected via his no-trade clause – continues unabated, much to the frustration of those in St. Louis who still haven’t quite gotten over the now-decade-old hacking scandal.
On the field, though, Arenado’s potential return to St. Louis does significantly alter the potential makeup of the roster. Manager Oli Marmol has spent much of the winter deftly stepping around questions regarding defensive alignments, in large part because Arenado’s incumbency blocks the team’s desired lineup.
The Cardinals, if given their druthers, would start Nolan Gorman at third, Brendan Donovan at second, Lars Nootbaar in left and allow Michael Siani and Victor Scott II battle it out for center.
Arenado certainly throws a wrench in those works.
The Cardinals will not relegate him to bench duty for sake of finding at bats for others, which means he almost certainly nudges Gorman back to second and Donovan back to the outfield. That creates a pinch which will occasionally force Nootbaar to center and squeeze out the better defenders. It might also, despite the team’s explicit wishes, put a touch more pressure on Jordan Walker’s playing time in right. Perhaps that’s a difference of only 50 at bats or so, maybe 10 starts, but it’s not nothing.
Despite the team’s desire to continue to cut payroll, chairman Bill DeWitt, Jr. said there will not need to be further cuts if Arenado is unable to be moved. The reaction won’t be to dump Erick Fedde and/or Steven Matz, but rather to continue on the planned path with the pitchers and continue to seek a fit for Arenado as the season unfolds.
That’s not to say other trade pressure might not arise, however.
Bench spots will shake out in spring, but it’s notable that there are very few players penciled in for competition for spots who have the ability to back up Masyn Winn at shortstop. Thomas Saggese is passable in that spot, but with Arenado still on board, it’s difficult to find enough at bats for him in the big leagues to justify allowing him to ride the bench rather than playing every day at Memphis.
The team encouraged José Fermín to expand his versatility by taking reps in the outfield, and he has; what they haven’t encouraged him to do is play more shortstop, owing to broad concerns about his arm strength.
Is either Luken Baker or the organization well served by encouraging him to spend a fifth season mashing homers at Triple-A Memphis? Is there a clear spot for Alec Burleson, who hits from the same side as Gorman but without the same kind of light tower power? Still, Burleson is coming off a season in which he hit 21 homers and drove in 78 runs. For most teams, that’s a player with a firm role in the middle of the lineup. For the Cardinals, he could find himself more likely to be a trade piece, simply because there aren’t enough seats available at the table.
Arenado is the greatest third baseman of his generation and one of the small handful of greats at the position all time. He deserves better than to be an impediment and a symbol of a failed era gone by. But the Cardinals, by structuring their entire winter around a trade they were uncertain to be able to pull off, have placed him in precisely that position.
There’s no way out except to find the deal, and finding the deal is not a guarantee.
Among other reasons to trade Arenado – perhaps chief among – is that doing so clears the decks for Chaim Bloom’s incoming administration. It removes pressure from him to get the deal right, and allows him to be the white hat figure in the eyes of a frustrated fan base, leading a storied franchise back to where they believe is their earned place in the league’s hierarchy.
That, ultimately, is why they can’t stand to let third base stand. In some ways, turning the page is viewed as a critical component in turning the tide on public opinion and solidifying the next decades of Cardinals baseball.
And still, with all that weight, they wait.
This story was originally published January 30, 2025 at 2:42 PM.
