St. Louis Cardinals have a big question: Who is taking centerfield?
Most of this spring’s questions regarding playing time for the St. Louis Cardinals terminate in centerfield. As various players are moved around the infield and outfield to compensate for the unexpected continued presence of Nolan Arenado, it’s in center where much of the squeeze is bound to occur, and it’s in center where the team is trying to push off any declarations for as long as possible.
“That’s a really, really good question, and one that I’ll continue to answer the same way,” manager Oli Marmol said as he wound up to avoid answering the question at all. “There’s a bigger conversation that needs to be had organizationally to make sure that we are not only making decisions that impact the short term, but also the long. As we get closer to breaking camp, those will be easier to decide on.”
Halfway through camp, answers are not yet forthcoming.
There are two basic lineup structures which are obvious options for the Cardinals at this point in camp. In both, Arenado is at third base, Masyn Winn is at shortstop, Willson Contreras is at first, and Jordan Walker is in right field. Those four, as well as one of Iván Herrera and Pedro Pagés behind the plate, can be written in their opening day positions in permanent marker.
To work through the others, the easiest place to start is at second base. If Brendan Donovan is at second, then Nolan Gorman figures to be the designated hitter. The Cardinals have made clear their disinterest in putting Alec Burleson in the outfield, so Donovan on the infield puts Lars Nootbaar in left and leaves center open for one of Victor Scott II or Michael Siani, whose primary value is likely to be generated by their legs and their gloves.
The version of the lineup which has Gorman at second would have Burleson as the DH, Donovan in left, Nootbaar in center, and the speed- and defense-heavy options on the bench. Marmol’s lineup for the first game of spring reflected the former, but there is a push in some corners of the organization for the latter, putting offense at the forefront and assuming the rest can be figured out down the road.
Development of Victor Scott II
There are arguments for either option. What there’s seemingly not, however, is a place for both Scott and Siani, and that leaves the Cardinals making the sort of organizational choice that Marmol described.
What’s not clear as of yet is what the Cardinals view as a more important long-term organizational investment. On the surface, it seems clear that Scott’s development and playing time would be of paramount import. His being forced into big league playing time by injury last season has taken him off prospect lists and removed his rookie status, but his skills are not at all diminished. While he put up only a .597 OPS in 314 at bats last year for Triple-A Memphis, there’s clear upside potential for him as an offensive player, especially given his ability to turn any time on base into an extra base opportunity.
“He’s focused, he’s dialed in, and he’s hungry when it comes to wanting to get better every single day,” Marmol said of Scott, who singled, walked, stole two bases and scored two runs in Thursday’s victory over the Miami Marlins.
The outfielder also received praise for his work with new coach Jon Jay on shaping up his defensive skills. Despite winning the minor league gold glove in center in 2023, Scott is not a particularly polished route runner, and there is sometimes hesitation in his first step that he can generally overcome with elite speed. The Cardinals, with that data in mind, see the makings of perhaps the game’s best outfielder, should he fully develop his raw skills.
“He’s getting better,” Marmol said. “He’s working at it. And when you improve the things that we’ve talked about, and you add his speed, you have an elite defender. So we’re looking forward to that.”
Michael Siani’s skills
Siani, meanwhile, was arguably the top defensive center fielder in the majors last season, taking into account all available public metrics. Among all center fielders with at least 250 batted ball opportunities, he trailed only Washington’s Jacob Young (19) with 16 outs above average. And while he posted only a .570 OPS in the big leagues last season, that total was .695 in his 51 appearances between June 1 and Aug. 3, when he was shelved with an oblique strain.
For a player with his defensive profile, putting up that sort of offensive competency over a full season would make Siani among the most valuable outfielders in all of baseball. The challenge, of course, comes in repeating performance; 51 games accounts for only a third of a season, hardly enough to be counted on over a six-month stretch.
“He knows what he is as a player,” Marmol said of Siani. “He knows that he needs to be the type of guy that plays elite defense and then does the small things offensively. And I think we’re seeing that out of him, so I don’t want to ask any more than what we’ve seen in the past.”
Siani started 96 games in center last season, more than double Scott’s 40 and nearly seven times as many as Nootbaar, who was penciled into 14 starting lineups in center. And yet despite that obvious incumbency, the Cardinals have stopped short of declaring the job his to lose. There is an ongoing competition, and as of yet, there doesn’t appear to be internal cohesion around which player they would prefer to win that competition – rare for an organization which has an innate skill for setting up predetermined outcomes.
“That’s the point of competition,” Marmol said. “Making it extremely hard on the organization to make the decision, and that’s exactly what will happen if they continue to do what they’re doing.”
Perhaps in a few more weeks, they’ll have an answer.
