Cardinals’ grim pitching outlook overshadows a much improved offense
If there was one thing that was surprising about the St. Louis Cardinals losing a slog of a 2-1 game in 13 innings to the Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday, it was that Pittsburgh’s first baseman attempted a flying clothesline on their catcher right in front of home plate, and the play still resulted in an out for the Pirates and no runs scored.
If there was a second thing, though, it was that the Cardinals found themselves in that position at all, having broken their streak of 11 consecutive games with at least four runs scored to open the season.
However things look for the pitching in the early season – “grim” seems to be a fair description – there has clearly been real progress in both approach and results at the plate, and the corners of the front office which determines the team’s future is likely breathing just the slightest bit easier.
By weighted runs created plus — the measure by which FanGraphs compares offensive output to the league average, adjusted for ballparks — the Cardinals have the fifth best offense in the league with a mark of 123, where 100 is league average.
That trails the Philadelphia Phillies by one point and the Arizona Diamondbacks by two, clustering them in a functional tie behind the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees.
The team’s .278 collective batting average trails only Mike Shildt’s San Diego Padres, and their .351 on base percentage is one point better than the Chicago Cubs, good for second place behind the Phillies.
Over a sample of 11 games, it’s hard to get too terribly excited, but it’s certainly a better start than the Cardinals might have feared. Indeed, the languishing pitching underwent its first roster move on Thursday, when Chris Roycroft was sent back to Memphis after some early season struggles. While both Nolan Gorman and especially Iván Herrera’s absences might portend some challenges in the weeks to come, the pressure put on opponents from up and down the lineup has had the Cardinals in position to overcome their innings shortfall on nearly every night.
Much was said and written throughout spring about the opportunities which would be created for the team’s young hitters, and it was fair to be skeptical that all of those needing to show some development would reach the applicable plateau. Aside from Gorman’s injury – which came after he started the season 4-for-8 with a homer and a double – they have gotten the desired results out of each of those young players, and even some they may not have expected.
Of the nine hitters who have taken the most plate appearances for the Cardinals in the early going, six have posted an OPS+ well above league average, and that group does not include Herrera and his team-high four home runs.
The three below that mark are Alec Burleson, Willson Contreras and Masyn Winn, and after starting the season 0-for-18 in his first five games, Winn is 10-for-27 since, pointing him firmly in the right direction.
It’s Contreras who comes with the most concern, as his first year full time at first base has seen him start in a brutal 5-for-49 swoon with an MLB-worst 22 strikeouts.
He has shown flashes of hitting the ball with authority, and his bat speed and barrel locations remain among the elite. His chase, whiff, and strikeout percentages, however, are borderline unplayable, and whether the Cardinals will have the ability to hold him firmly in the second spot in the lineup for much longer remains to be seen.
Contreras, though, has just two more years remaining on his contract, and as the Cardinals embark on a multi-year project which they refuse to call a rebuild, it would be tough to make an argument for him being in many long term plans.
Meanwhile, Lars Nootbaar is settling into high levels of production after a blistering start, Brendan Donovan caught fire on the team’s first road trip, and Jordan Walker looks much more like a polished, experienced hitter than the easily exploited young player who struggled through his second season in the big leagues.
Every instinct of every data-oriented analyst of the game is screaming in the direction of the Cardinals that the season is not yet mature enough to make any judgments, especially given the bizarre weather and the paucity of games against the same league, let alone the same division. The mentality, though, matters. Starting poorly and chasing throughout the year comes with a much different perspective than starting high and riding the rollercoaster.
The Cardinals would prefer not to scream and wave their arms every time the offense comes over the top of a big hill. Given their struggles in recent years, though, and the absolute necessity of getting this season right, there is at least some reserved reason to celebrate.
Years of trusting processes without results has seemingly given way to results which prove a process, and that’s easier to sell to fans and players alike.
