Cardinals get answers from evaluating young pitchers, but they’re not all good
If the primary purpose of this season for the St. Louis Cardinals was to take a firm assessment of the players already in-house, it’s possible they achieved that goal most convincingly in the starting rotation.
Through a combination of conservative deployment and unusually good health, the Cardinals have gotten a look at nearly all of the pitchers about whom they had questions at the end of spring training.
The lone exception may be left-hander Quinn Mathews, who was a sensation in camp after a dominant 2024 in which he led the minor leagues in strikeouts. It would have been a surprise at the end of spring to learn that he would not spend a day in the majors in 2025.
But, barring a significant development in the season’s remaining five weeks, this year has been more about learning how to keep his body and mechanics ready for the grind of the big leagues while turning in serviceable results.
Other than Mathews, it’s clear what the club can expect in 2026 from its young starters at the highest levels. Matthew Liberatore and Michael McGreevy can hold down spots in a major league rotation, Andre Pallante is a significant risk, and neither Tink Hence nor Tekoah Roby can be relied upon next season.
For Roby, as well as Cooper Hjerpe and Sem Robberse, 2026 is largely an academic question, as all three have undergone Tommy John surgery this season. That will keep them rehabbing well into next year, and while big league cameos aren’t out of the question, they won’t be healthy enough to be major variables.
Hence has managed just 21 1/3 innings in 2025, his lowest total as a professional. In five minor league seasons, he has yet to reach 300 career innings, which pushes his electric arm and repertoire into the “lottery ticket” category. The club maintains some optimism he’ll contribute if he can remain healthy for extended stretches.
It’s possible those contributions will come as a reliever. One of the most pressing tasks for the new player development staff in the front office will be determining whether there are players in the system who, through physical challenges or other factors, might not be in a position to succeed as currently deployed. Hence may headline that group, but there is no guarantee a pitcher with his build and limited relief experience can thrive in that role.
Even as he prepares to surpass his single-season innings ceiling and manages fluctuating velocity—which has plagued him throughout his career—Liberatore has emerged as a dependable starter who can provide valuable innings. By ERA+ this season, he’s been league average; that might not set imaginations alight, but as seen by the contracts handed out by the club to numerous starters in recent decades, it certainly has value.
McGreevy is in more or less the same position. He’s slightly below average by that same mark (94 ERA+) and is likely to finish with just under 15 starts, but combined with his workload at Triple-A Memphis, he has proven to be as reliable as any young starter can be. Indeed, with an ERA nearly a run higher than his Fielding Independent Pitching mark, there’s a strong argument McGreevy deserves better results—likely making him a staple for 2026.
Pallante, on the other hand, has seen a drop in his already modest strikeout rate and a doubling of his home run rate, both concerning trends. The Cardinals have lost seven of his eight starts since July 1, and he has surrendered 29 earned runs in just 41 1/3 innings during that span. That stretch began with seven shutout innings at Pittsburgh on July 1, so the decline since has been even steeper than the numbers alone might suggest.
With Sonny Gray owed $35 million next season and firmly holding a no-trade clause, it appears the Cardinals will enter Chaim Bloom’s first offseason in charge with 60% of a starting rotation and no obvious help coming from the upper minors.
Double-A left-handers Ixan Henderson and Brycen Mautz could pitch their way into consideration next spring, but penciling them into the Opening Day lineup would be premature. The same goes for Liam Doyle, this year’s No. 5 overall pick, but his potential significance to the franchise’s future means the club will be cautious with his development.
The Cardinals’ rotation health this summer—at least at the major league level—has been an extreme outlier and not one likely to be repeated. Before Bloom and his staff can assemble a contender for 2026 and beyond, the rotation needs to be addressed. At this point, the Cardinals can be reasonably confident in what they have. And, much to their chagrin, equally confident in what they don’t.