Cardinals honor Arenado as both face another offseason of uncertainty
The St. Louis Cardinals went out of their way Sunday to give third baseman Nolan Arenado the kind of send-off a player of his stature has historically deserved from a baseball-mad city.
Of course, they did so without knowing for certain whether he’ll actually be gone and with little warning that it would take place—leaving the event, like Arenado’s current status with the organization, uncertain, somewhat unfulfilling, and subject to the whims of outside actors as much as the Cardinals themselves.
Roughly a year ago, during a late-season road trip to Colorado, Arenado and John Mozeliak had a frank conversation about the direction of the franchise and the future Hall of Famer’s place in it. From that discussion came a confident trade plan with a limited selection of destinations. The one deal the team agreed upon—with the Houston Astros—was vetoed by Arenado’s no-trade clause, raising lingering questions about whether this year feels any different.
“It feels like it,” Arenado said. “I guess those are the conversations I’ll have with the front office here soon. We have one more week left, so it’s really hard to get my head around a whole lot of it.”
What has changed over the course of the season—beyond the passage of time—is that another year and roughly $27 million have come off the commitment an acquiring team would owe Arenado. Multiple reports at the time of Arenado’s rejected trade to Houston last winter indicated the Cardinals were willing to cover as much as $20 million in such a deal. If that remains the case, it would cover a significant portion of the approximately $37 million ($42 million in salary minus a $5 million payment still owed by the Rockies) due over the two remaining years of his contract.
Plotting potential interest in Arenado on a Cartesian plane, the line of his salary and the line of his production are approaching each other asymptotically. Interest rises as the money falls, but in a season where Arenado missed about 50 games with a shoulder injury—his first significant injury absence in more than a decade—he’s also delivered a career-worst offensive performance by nearly every measure.
That is balanced by the resurgence of his defense and his ability to make plays at third base into his mid-30s that few infielders would even attempt at their peak. He remains an elite third baseman, but how much that is worth to contending teams—and whether those clubs overlap with his preferred destinations—is a puzzle Chaim Bloom and his group will be forced to solve as one of their first tasks on the job.
“Teams are going to have to want me,” Arenado acknowledged. “I know I can help a team win. I do believe that; I believe I’ll make the right adjustments. But I also have a family now. I have to make sure I do right by them too.”
Arenado’s blend of geographic and competitive interests led last winter to a limited list of potential destinations, including Boston, the Los Angeles Dodgers, the New York Yankees, San Diego, and at times, Houston. That Houston was theoretically approved and then blocked reflects the fluid reality of such a list—a team can be on it until it’s not, and a team that isn’t can find its way in.
It isn’t hard, for example, to see the Philadelphia Phillies as a glaring fit, given their lack of long-term commitment to Alec Bohm at third base, their penchant for chasing star players (many of whom could share the spotlight with Arenado in his later years), and his existing relationships and playing history alongside some of those stars.
If the Phillies are looking to move a disgruntled Nick Castellanos and his $20 million salary for 2026—a player who lacks any trade protection—there seems to be an obvious match, especially since the Cardinals could then look to flip Castellanos, either in the offseason or at the deadline. Philadelphia, however, was not particularly engaged in last winter’s trade process, nor were they on the list of destinations from Arenado’s camp. What appears to be a fit from the outside can look less clear upon closer inspection.
The downside of the groupthink gripping MLB front offices today is that few baseball operations leaders are willing to take the kind of big-swing gamble that Arenado represents at this stage of his career. To trade for him now is to bet on a player who has done exceptional things and defied expectations throughout his career—until the age curve intervened.
Players of his caliber often manage to defy those expectations; that, more or less, defines their greatness. It would be a mistake to declare that Arenado can’t bounce back. There are just few indicators suggesting that outcome, and the real dollars gambled on it will have to be significant.
“Whatever happens, I really enjoyed my time here,” Arenado said while standing, perhaps for the final time, in front of his Busch Stadium locker. “I was really happy I got traded here. I have no regrets about it. I think some people wonder, but I have zero regrets about my decision to stay when I opted in. I love this place. I loved it. But change is definitely needed.”