How five predictions about the Cardinals missed the mark in 2025
Human memory is fallible and shaped by biases and experiences to such a degree that it’s possible to carry a vague sense of confidence in predictions made months ago that, upon further inspection, turned out to be dramatically incorrect.
Nothing about the St. Louis Cardinals in 2025 was particularly out of the ordinary, but wading into minutiae is a sticky business that is not always rewarding
. These five predictions about the coming season were made in January; they’re now an amusing guidepost for things that can go wrong.
Prediction 1: Quinn Mathews makes his MLB debut before May 1 – Not even close
On May 1, Mathews was on the injured list and had allowed 15 walks in just 10 ⅓ innings spread over three poor starts for Triple-A Memphis. A period of resetting some discomfort in his shoulder followed after his start on April 11, and after two rehab appearances, he made it back to the Memphis rotation on May 31.
From there through the end of the season, he was solid – a 3.66 ERA and 100 strikeouts (and 59 walks) in 83 ⅔ innings. It was not an entirely lost year, but it was not the giant leap forward that might have been foreseen after his electric spring training performances. “It was obviously a bumpy year,” president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom said of Mathews. “I don’t really feel any differently about his upside than I did last year.”
That’s useful optimism, but not for this prediction, which was a solid flop.
Prediction 2: Pedro Pagés leads the Cardinals in starts at catcher – Yes, by a lot
Not only did Pagés make 102 starts behind the plate, Iván Herrera didn’t even come in second; that was Yohel Pozo, by more than 20 games. In fact, Herrera appeared behind the plate just 14 times in 2025, the same number of times – and with only one more start – than Jimmy Crooks, who didn’t debut until late August.
Some of that was tied to Herrera’s health, and he’ll get another shot this winter after elbow surgery to prove he can be a strong enough thrower to hold down the position in the big leagues. Much of that opportunity is the result of Herrera’s conviction in his own abilities.
Pagés still garners raves for his preparation and handling of the pitching staff, and decision makers inside the organization view him as one of the game’s best backup catchers. That’s not what he was in 2025; it should be what he is in 2026.
Prediction 3: Masyn Winn makes his first All-Star team and wins his first Gold Glove ... Not yet, but…
Perhaps more than any Cardinal other than Herrera, Winn fought through significant physical challenges to stay on the field for the majority of the season. There’s no question that the tear in his right meniscus affected his ability to swing comfortably and drive the ball, to say nothing of slowing him down on the base paths.
The Cardinals weren’t a good or relevant enough team to send two players to the All-Star game, and Brendan Donovan’s superlative offensive first half got him the nod. Winn would have been a fine candidate, but lacked the flashy offensive upside to draw attention from fan voters and his fellow players.
Despite all of that, he provided elite shortstop defense on a nearly daily basis before being shut down in the middle of September. Winn is a stone cold lock to be a finalist for the Gold Glove when those finalists are announced, and figures to have a solid shot to win. Mookie Betts will receive some credit for his late-season offensive renaissance and challenging transition to short full-time; he and Atlanta’s Nick Allen are the prime challengers.
Prediction 4: Nolan Arenado is traded before spring training to the Philadelphia Phillies – No, but check back
A copy and paste from January: “Predicting a trade here is easy; predicting a team seems futile. A deal with Houston fell apart, the Yankees and Dodgers reportedly aren’t interested, and seats are filling up as the Red Sox flirt with Alex Bregman and no clear spot for Arenado is on the horizon.”
Nine months later, all still true. So too is the need to shake up the mix in Philadelphia and Arenado’s obvious fit there, especially as the Phillies look to be headed for another postseason bellyflop at the hands of the Dodgers.
Arenado had a narrow trade list last winter. It is now, by his own admission, much less narrow. The timing on this prediction was wrong. The prediction itself still stands a very good shot of being correct.
Prediction 5: Craig Albernaz becomes a Cardinal by the end of the year – There’s still time
There was no specific prediction made about his potential role, which made this an easier moon to shoot. Oli Marmol is returning to the dugout to manage in 2026, so the most obvious fit for the rising coaching star who has a long background with Bloom and the Tampa Bay Rays is not open. As the managerial carousel spins and Bloom fills out his front office staff, though, there will be notable outside additions made.
If Derek Shelton doesn’t get hired for a managerial role elsewhere, the Carbondale native and SIU (and Rays) alum’s place with the Cardinals seems obvious. James Click, formerly the GM of the Astros and another former cohort of Bloom’s, is another name to watch. If Albernaz is an avatar, the prediction was generously in the right spirit.
Final score: 30ish%
Full marks for Pagés, and perhaps another amalgamated ten percent for the remaining bits and pieces that might yet turn out to be true or could be true enough. Only one of the five (Mathews) was an absolute dud, which is incentive to push the horizons even further in 2026.
