Cardinals eye stability in rotation amid shift toward short-term pitcher contracts
The wave of contract option decisions washing over Major League Baseball in the days following the World Series has already begun to shape the free agent market for starting pitchers.
The St. Louis Cardinals have not yet been particularly forthcoming about the specifics of their offseason plans, but one area that President of Baseball Operations Chaim Bloom has said he wants to address is, in fact, the starting rotation.
There will be appealing short-term options, and there should not be any sort of financial restriction in that realm. Long-term deals remain unlikely, and the Cardinals do intend to explore the trade market for at least one high-priced veteran. As the market defines itself, that option begins to look more appealing.
Sonny Gray is owed $35 million in salary in the final season of the three-year deal he signed in November 2023. He holds a $5 million buyout of a $30 million option for 2027. That makes him a guaranteed $40 million investment over the coming year and raises the question of whether the Cardinals would need to pay down his contract significantly to facilitate a trade.
The dollars may seem significant, but in the context of the broader market and Gray’s performance, paying them out over a single year may be entirely within the tolerances of contending teams.
His fielding independent pitching mark was better than his ERA by nearly a full run, and an unusually high batting average on balls in play suggests that some of the home runs he surrendered in 2025 were more a blip than a degradation of his performance.
Importantly, he made 32 starts and pitched 180 innings, striking out 201 hitters along the way. If Gray is not precisely the steely backbone of a rotation at this point in his career, he remains a formidable big league pitcher who can get outs at a high rate. One of the bigger challenges may be finding a trade match he deems acceptable, given that his no-trade clause allows him to be selective about potential destinations.
The appeal of Gray increases when considering the landscape of pitchers who have already opted into one-year player options. Toronto’s Shane Bieber—healthy and sharp down the stretch—picked up his one-year option for $16 million. Former Cardinal Jack Flaherty chose to keep a one-year, $20 million commitment from Detroit, rather than test the market for a third consecutive year.
Conversely, the Chicago Cubs delivered one of the winter’s first surprises by declining their half of an option on left-hander Shota Imanaga, which would have locked him in for three years at just under $60 million. There are projections that are less flattering for Imanaga, especially given his home run rate allowed in 2025, but under ordinary circumstances, it seems he could certainly beat that deal on the open market.
Circumstances, though, are not ordinary. The storm clouds already gathering around the 2027 labor fight are casting a shadow on this winter’s activity. The issue with Imanaga, for instance, is likely less about his performance than the uncertain landscape. By locking into a three-year commitment, the Cubs would be taking a contract into an unknown future that could potentially include a salary cap or other mechanisms that limit team spending. Given the frugality of their ownership, it is difficult not to draw a line between that uncertainty and their present-day thriftiness.
That same dynamic seems likely to have influenced Bieber and Flaherty’s decisions as well. Without confidence in their ability to secure a multiyear deal this winter—a deal that would carry through the expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement—keeping their high salaries for a year is a logical choice. That is also instructive when it comes to Gray, given that teams seem willing to pay more cash now for more flexibility later.
What that means for the Cardinals’ acquisitions remains to be seen. They are certain to add at least one veteran starter via free agency, and perhaps more, depending on how the trade market develops. If Gray is dealt, the need for innings will be acute. Matthew Liberatore and Michael McGreevy are the only guaranteed starters returning to the rotation, and a team that benefited from historically good injury luck last season is certainly not guaranteed to do so again. Indeed, the odds are heavily stacked against them.
There will be a need for proven starters, upper-level depth and a baseline of quality arms whom the Cardinals can trust to take the mound every fifth day. For a team not willing to concede to the competitive doldrums of a rebuild—and one hesitant to continue bottoming out in front of a disaffected fan base—stability comes at a premium.
In a winter of one-year deals for starters, the Cardinals will be popular dance partners. The market, from their perspective, is largely shaping up in their favor. Executing from here will be the first real short-term test of the new regime.