The St. Louis Cardinals should consider Mookie Betts as a replacement for Marcell Ozuna

If the St. Louis Cardinals lose free agent cleanup hitter Marcell Ozuna to free agency — and at this point it seems that is a distinct possibility — it could end up hurting the team in more ways than one.

Not only might the Cardinals see a big offensive contributor wave goodbye when their biggest need is finding more run production. But Ozuna might double the damage by signing with a NL Central Division rival.

So far, it appears the Cincinnati Reds have kicked Ozuna’s proverbial tires. And some prognosticators believe Ozuna would be a nice replacement for Chicago Cubs left fielder Kyle Schwarber in 2020. Other reports indicate that the Atlanta Braves, a team St. Louis might have to get through in the playoffs if it hopes for a return to the World Series, have called Ozuna’s agent, too.

It’s a tough situation for St. Louis. On one hand, the team has a boatload of guys capable of playing left field. Lane Thomas, Randy Arozarena, Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson are all more than capable of fielding the position. However, I’m not sure if any of those guys is ready to be trusted with the job of batting fourth on a team that is supposed to be a contender next season. O’Neill has big power.

But is any pitcher worth his salt going to pitch to Paul Goldschmidt when they can intentional pass the perennial all-star to face a guy who strikes out a third of the time instead? Carlson and Arozarena seem better fits as table setters than cleanup men. Thomas hit 27 homers in 2017, most of them coming in Class AA Springfield. But he’s got precious little experience at the MLB level after seeing his big league debut shortened when he was injured by a pitch.

The Cardinals have invested way too much money in Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler, Mike Leake, Brett Cecil and Miles Mikolas to overpay for another player.

On the other hand, by letting Ozuna hit the free market, the Cardinals have all but guaranteed their left fielder’s price tag is going to increase more than they want to pay.

Three ways to replace Ozuna

There are three alternatives to giving Ozuna a big contract:

1. Say the heck with it and punt the 2020 season as a rebuilding year. Play the kids in the outfield to see what they can do and wait until next winter, when Leake and Cecil will finally be off the books and the team will see the light at the end of the Fowler and Carpenter tunnels to reload for a run at the postseason. I’m not a big fan of this tactic and, with a suspicious number of empty seats at Busch Stadium the last couple of years — including in the National League Division Series last month, I’m not sure it’s one that will pay off in the public relations department.

2) Sign a different free agent. This is problematic because the Cardinals are near their self-imposed payroll cap already. However, it would seem to make a lot more sense for the team to bite the bullet now and sign Josh Donaldson — an older player who ought to be gettable on a one or two-year contract -- instead of committing to five years or more for Ozuna.

3) Make a trade for a different middle of the order bat. St. Louis picked up Ozuna through trade. Maybe it can replace him the same way. The problem with this idea is that teams don’t usually trade away middle of the order bats if they can help it. But maybe a team can’t help it. Enter the Boston Red Sox who seem uncertain of their ability to re-sign slugging outfielder Mookie Betts as he enters the last year of his contract. It would be a page out of the John Mozeliak playbook to try to get Betts into a Cardinals uniform on a short-term basis to show him why he would want to stay for the long haul. Sometimes that works, like it did with Goldschmidt. Other times it doesn’t — like with Jason Heyward a few years back. It would be a big gamble. But it might be the only way to hold the line on payroll while filling the most obvious hole on the roster.

Although I don’t think the Cardinals would ever openly admit they were throwing in the towel on a season before it started, I believe option number one is the most likely ending to this story.

The team has about $10 million to spend to hold the line on the budget, the stated goal of team chairman Bill DeWitt Jr., and that’s not going to get the job done on the free agent market. A trade for a short term player is too big of a gamble to take — unless they could give up pieces they could stand to do without in the trade.

Might a package of Carlos Martinez and Tyler O’Neill entice the Sox? I doubt it. But that’s the sort of investment I would be willing to make in a one-year gamble the Cardinals are almost certain to lose in the 2021 free agent market.

Scott Wuerz

Belleville News-Democrat

Scott Wuerz has written “Cheap Seats,” a St. Louis Cardinals fan blog for the Belleville News-Democrat, since 2007. He is a former BND reporter who covered breaking news and education.