How the St. Louis Cardinals could reduce the cost of trading for Nolan Arenado

As time goes by, the drumbeat of the rumor that the St. Louis Cardinals are seriously working on a trade for Nolan Arenado just keeps getting louder.

Doubters say they don’t think the Cardinals can afford to take on Arenado’s salary — he makes $35 million a year over the next five years and more than $200 million total over the next seven. They’re also concerned that Arenado has an opt-out clause available to him after the 2021 season. They’re concerned that the rumored trade package of Carlos Martinez, Dakota Hudson, Tyler O’Neill and prospect Matthew Liberatore is too rich for a short term rental.

Honestly, I don’t think it’s that hard to work all of this out. Here’s how I see the anatomy of an Arenado trade.

Because the Cardinals are paying a premium in talent they should ask for two additional stipulations in the deal: first, the Rockies have to either take their choice of Matt Carpenter or Dexter Fowler in the deal, or else they need to eat $30-$35 million in salary coming from the next two seasons.

That agreement gets you over a lot of hurdles. First, the Cardinals have very few payroll dollars committed after 2021. By pushing back the blow of Arenado’s contract until then, it won’t bust the budget in the short term.

The Cardinals should try to get a commitment from Arenado to waive his opt out clause. He allegedly wanted the opt out because he wasn’t so sure about the Rockies and didn’t want to be trapped on a second division team for the rest of his career. If that happens, the worry about a short stay is gone.

But if Arenado won’t opt in, then the Cardinals, by getting the salary relief, would be getting a $35m a year player for roughly half price. That’s a great value — and there is still the chance to sign him to an extension later.

So, say this all goes down and the Rockies opt to eat the money instead of taking Carpenter (who I think might be a great hitter once again in spacious Coors Field) or Fowler.

That would give St. Louis a chance to trade those two elsewhere. Carpenter might have some appeal to the Texas Rangers. Carpenter could work in a rotation with newly acquired Todd Frazier at third base, designated hitter and first base. Carpenter would almost certainly waive his no-trade clause to go play near his Texas home. Especially because it’s pretty obvious wouldn’t be much more than an overpaid pinch hitter in St. Louis with both Arenado and Goldschmidt on board.

Even if the Cardinals had to eat half of Carpenter and Fowler’s checks to shed them, with the Arenado compensation, the Cardinals would actually lower their payroll in 2020 while adding a top five player in baseball, improving both their offense and their defense.

And make no mistake, that’s what Arenado is.

The Cardinals would have two premium players to build around, fundamentally sound, dynamic players who can field as well as they hit. The crummy St. Louis infield of a couple years ago would have morphed into having Gold Glove Award winners at three positions. And shortstop Paul DeJong could yet be the fourth.

This would be the most talent the Cardinals had assembled since the end of the 2011 World Series. They would have a better core but a younger overall roster.

It would hurt to lose two good, young pitchers. But this is a deal St. Louis can’t pass on. Especially when the team has so many good, young pitchers coming up. I’m not sure Ryan Helsley doesn’t have more potential as a starter than Hudson.

This story was originally published January 13, 2020 at 10:07 AM.

Scott Wuerz

Belleville News-Democrat

Scott Wuerz has written “Cheap Seats,” a St. Louis Cardinals fan blog for the Belleville News-Democrat, since 2007. He is a former BND reporter who covered breaking news and education.