The St. Louis Cardinals re-signed Matt Wieters. Does that mean an Arenado trade is close?

As the rumor mill about All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado goes quiet, it’s interesting that the St. Louis Cardinals have signed catcher Matt Wieters to a one-year contract.

All winter we’ve heard that the Cardinals don’t need to bring back cleanup hitting outfielder Marcell Ozuna because the team would prefer to find playing time for its young outfielders. So why would the club bring back a veteran receiver to block top catching prospect Andrew Knizner from spending time behind the plate at the major league level?

Tactically, I have no problems with Wieters, who did a really nice job for St. Louis when starter Yadier Molina couldn’t go for whatever reason. But Molina could be a free agent at the end of the year, so St. Louis ought to be more concerned about grooming a replacement for one of the best catchers in baseball history than in making time for a guy who is going to be 34 in May. It’s well known that Molina is stingy with his position, so there isn’t room for two backups in the big leagues. And Knizner, who will turn 25 in a couple of weeks, has pretty much proved all he can in Class AAA where he’s collected 600 at bats the last two seasons, hitting near .300 with 19 homers.

It makes me wonder if the Cardinals front office knows something that we don’t. Like maybe that there is a good chance Knizner could be traded before the 2020 season starts.

Young catchers are a hot commodity and maybe Knizner could be included in a package for Arenado. It’s admittedly pure speculation. But picking up Wieters seems awfully short sighted if Knizner is going to be in the organization for the upcoming season. The Cardinals have been pretty diligent in trying to hold the line on payroll this winter. Catcher seems to be a spot where they could save a few bucks. Instead, they guaranteed Wieters two million bucks with a chance to earn another million dollars through incentives. If the Cardinals believe outfield prospect Dylan Carlson can fill the shoes of the teams departed cleanup hitter in left field, why don’t John Mozeliak and company believe the guy who made the team comfortable parting with Carson Kelly isn’t capable of being a seldom-used reserve?

A package of Knizner, Dakota Hudson and hot prospect Matthew Liberatore sounds like a pretty good haul for the Colorado Rockies. Knizner offers power behind the plate in a place where hitting the long ball is paramount. Incumbent Colorado catcher Tony Welters has hit all of seven home runs in four years in the big leagues although, in fairness, last season was the first one he made it into triple figures in appearances. A career .229 hitter, Welters hit a respectable .262 last year. But in 2018, he batted only .170 in 216 plate appearances.

Liberatore is the Cardinals number three prospect, according to mlb.com while Knizner is number four. Carlson, believed to be untouchable, is number one, while Nolan Gorman — a third baseman like Arenado — is number two.

Interestingly, talk at the Winter Warm-Up over the weekend, talk about Gorman floated the idea that he might make it to the big leagues at a position other than the hot corner. Might Gorman end up replacing Ozuna in left field when he graduates to the big leagues in a couple of years as opposed to taking over for Matt Carpenter at third base?

Anyway, how can the Cardinals afford to part with Knizner if Molina is nearing the end of his career as a player? Well, first of all, it’s not a secret that Molina wants to play beyond the expiration of his current contract at the end of the season. So that pushes the problem back a little bit — as long as he’s true to his word that he’ll play in St. Louis or nowhere. Second, the Cardinals number seven prospect is another catcher, Evan Herrera, who has quickly established himself as a hot commodity even though he won’t be 20 until June.

Is a Nolan Arenado trade wishful thinking?

While Knizner’s potential inclusion in a trade deal is merely a guess, I find it to be very interesting how the Cardinals behaved about the potential Arenado trade at the Winter Warm-Up.

Typically team President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak pours ice-cold water an any rumors he’s confronted with. Just last week he said 90-95 percent of what we’re hearing isn’t true. Over the weekend he joked with fans asking then what they heard about the Arenado situation and, while he predictably offered no evidence in support of a trade being imminent, he certainly didn’t shoot down the trade talk. It’s one thing to be cagey and coy. But it seemed like he specifically didn’t want to say the trade talk doesn’t have some fire to go along with the smoke.

Hopefully, it’s not wishful thinking on my part -- or that of other St. Louis fans who realize what a great player Arenado is and how much he could transform this team from pretty good to great.

This story was originally published January 20, 2020 at 10:07 AM.

Scott Wuerz

Belleville News-Democrat

Scott Wuerz has written “Cheap Seats,” a St. Louis Cardinals fan blog for the Belleville News-Democrat, since 2007. He is a former BND reporter who covered breaking news and education.