Thank goodness the St. Louis Cardinals invested in Miles Mikolas instead of in offense

Is starting pitcher Miles Mikolas the latest contract bust for the St. Louis Cardinals?

The right-handed pitcher signed a four-year, $68-million contract a year ago as he entered his second season in St. Louis following a period of exile in Japan after washing out in his first try to establish himself in the major leagues. Mikolas will see his annual salary jump from $8 million in 2019 to $15.75 million over each of the next four seasons.

Now, the Cardinals are trying to downplay Mikolas’ arm injury that put the starting pitcher on the sidelines as his new deal kicks in. The question is, was St. Louis smart to extend themselves on a pitcher with a short track history on which to base their decision when they have a wealth of pitching but a dearth of offense?

As they enter spring training, 21 of the players on St. Louis’ 40-man roster are pitchers. While some of them are prospects who aren’t likely to play a major role in 2020, but those players are the exception not the rule. Beyond Mikolas, the Cardinals have Jack Flaherty, Dakota Hudson, Adam Wainwright and Carlos Martinez seemingly set for rotation spots. Then they have Kwang Hyun Kim, Ryan Helsley, Austin Gomber, Danial Ponce De Leon, John Gant, Alex Reyes, Junior Fernandez and Genesis Cabrera among the players who could compete for a number five spot in the rotation.

While the Cardinals couldn’t predict that Mikolas would be injured, they could have forecast that they could have signed Marcell Ozuna to an annual salary similar to what Mikolas got. I’d say a number four hitter would have been remarkably more valuable to this team than a number four starting pitcher.

How long will Mikolas be out? It’s hard to say. The front office claims the injury isn’t a big deal. But they’ve claimed every pitcher’s injury isn’t a big deal back to Brad Penny’s minor back tweak and beyond. We know that Mikolas had a similar problem in the second half of last year. So, the situation is that he has basically had the entire offseason to heal — and he didn’t. Not a good sign. If Mikolas is out three weeks of spring training but ready to go when the players take the field on opening day, I still think they would have been better off investing $16 million in a bat. If he ends up having elbow ligament surgery and misses at least the first quarter of his four-year contract, suddenly we have a disaster.

To justify the move the Cardinals made to sign him, Mikolas has to pitch like a dominant number two starter. He needs to hold opposing hitters down to a couple of runs a game to allow St. Louis’ weak offense to score enough to win games. If he’s average, the contract is a bust because one of about a half dozen other guys could be a mediocre fifth starter — or better.

John Mozeliak’s bad contracts hurt the Cardinals

St. Louis just can’t avoid bad contracts. They’re finally getting beyond Luke Gregerson, Mike Leake and Brett Cecil, have two years to go on Dexter Fowler and Matt Carpenter, and now they’re locked in through the 2023 season on Mikolas when the only fruit their farm system seems to consistently produce is pitching. With a self-imposed payroll some $40-$50 million less than the big spenders in New York, Los Angeles, Boston and Chicago, the Cardinals can’t afford to tie up a quarter to a third of their talent expenditure on players who don’t significantly help the cause.

It seems like President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak hedges his contract bets by signing a number of medium-sized deals as opposed to making a big splash on the free agent market. But is that the most likely way to succeed? The more gambles you take, the more likely it is that a portion of them will fail, and when you have guys who wash out like Leake, Gregorian or Cecil, you have to find guys to fill the void. Cecil is getting $7 million this year and made $7.5 million the three years before that to do basically nothing. So, the Cardinals had to try to find another dominant lefty to cover Cecil’s responsibilities, and they signed Andrew Miller to a two-year, $22.5 pact to do just that. Miller had something of an uneven year.

But it’s much harder to stomach that when you think about the fact St. Louis spent $19 million last year on it’s primary left-handed relievers. Meanwhile, the Cardinals can’t afford to sign a corner outfielder because the team has already invested $16.5 million a year over five seasons in Fowler. A corner outfielder is going to get 500-600 at-bats a year. A lefty specialist might pitch 50-60 innings. Which is a better investment?

Wouldn’t it make much more sense for the Cardinals to fill out the roster with home-grown talent and then spend it’s free agent money more strategically on an impact player or two? Paul Goldschmidt is a guy who fits that description. But he was a tough fit onto the St. Louis roster because St. Louis was locked into a two-year deal with Carpenter who is really only capable at this point of his career of being a first baseman. And Goldschmidt can’t do it all by himself. He’s 32 years old and working past his prime. Signing Anthony Rendon to a $260 million contract makes more sense to me than signing Mikolas, Carpenter, Fowler, Leake, etc to smaller deals that add up to much more money.

The Cardinals need to stop being penny wise and pound foolish.

Scott Wuerz

Belleville News-Democrat

Scott Wuerz has written “Cheap Seats,” a St. Louis Cardinals fan blog for the Belleville News-Democrat, since 2007. He is a former BND reporter who covered breaking news and education.