The St. Louis Cardinals can afford Nolan Arenado, so a trade needs to happen right now

I know, it’s fantasy to imagine that the St. Louis Cardinals would make the sort of bold move this offseason that they should have made in one or more of the previous five.

But, if the Cardinals were serious about getting better in the future while being cost effective in the uncertainty of 2021, there is a way they could do it. Easily.

Supposedly, according to multiple reports over the past couple of years, slugging Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado would like to play for the Cardinals. He’d be the perfect addition to a team that not only needs a middle of the order bat, but also features a smoking crater at the third base position with Matt Carpenter played out and Tommy Edman taking up permanent residence at second base with Kolton Wong hitting the trail.

In the meantime, the Cardinals have a wealth of pitching prospects, a couple of highly-touted catchers of the future and some other interesting pieces that could be used to get the job done. The only real problem is how to make the money work. But Arenado’s contract solves that problem by itself.

The third-baseman signed a $260-million deal that runs eight years, concluding after the 2026 season when he’ll be 35 years old. In 2021 he’s supposed to make $35 million, a bit of a lump for the St. Louis front office to swallow in a year when the team doesn’t know if it will be able to have fans in the stands to bolster revenue or even how many games will be played. That $35 million sure looks like the end of negotiations, doesn’t it?

Not so fast.

Arenado’s contract also contains a much-discussed opt-out clause at the end of the 2021 season. So let’s address the short-term cost problem AND the opt out at the same time with a renegotiated contract that offers St. Louis some financial flexibility up front in exchange for some more dollars for the player on the back end of the deal.

Take that $35 million and tack it on the latter part of the deal. Give Arenado $15 million in 2021, which he can afford on account of the fact that he’s already banked tens of millions of dollars up to this point of his career and give him a signing bonus of $10 million payable in 2022 when Carpenter, Dexter Fowler, Carlos Martinez, Andrew Miller and their awful contracts will be but a bad memory.

Especially when you consider that the National League will (sadly) almost assuredly have the designated hitter thrust upon it by 2022, the thought of an age 36 player on the roster isn’t that much of a concern. Even if the third baseman loses his range, he could still hit like George Brett, Paul Molitor and countless other American League batsmen did after their days in the field were over. Besides, a little more creativity could further soften the blow.

Nolan Arenado’s contract

Arenado’s contract is written to taper down toward the end, paying $32 million in 2025 and $27 million in 2026. So don’t add another prime year of $35 million at the tail end. Add it in 2025, pay him $32 million in 2026 and $27 million in 2027. Then, if he does fade, you soften the blow.

Why would that be a good deal for the player? Well, more money for doing the same stuff is always good. But Arenado was supposed to make his first max earning year salary last year and lost the vast majority of it to the COVID shut down. So he’d have a chance to recover that lost money, which ought to be pretty appealing. Second, the second-year signing bonus is designed to give Arenado guaranteed money if COVID is still hanging out or if there is a labor stoppage in 2022. Again, very appealing to a player.

The Cardinals get the player they need to restore their team to true competitiveness AND to put fans in Busch Stadium seats. The deal is heavy in 2022, but easy in 2021. That gives the team a chance to take advantage of its current payroll structure to maximize talent — and then give the club room to sign its younger players as they move through the arbitration process toward free agency.

It’s an expensive deal. But nothing compared to some of the top earners in the game who who command deals of 10 years or more.

I don’t think the Cardinals are going to do this — or a similar deal they could ink with a free agent this winter. But the point is they COULD if they really wanted to. They have solid young pitching and a decent defense. A big boost to the offense is all it should take to create a winning formula for the home team.

Scott Wuerz

Belleville News-Democrat

Scott Wuerz has written “Cheap Seats,” a St. Louis Cardinals fan blog for the Belleville News-Democrat, since 2007. He is a former BND reporter who covered breaking news and education.