Chiefs-Broncos prediction: What NFL history tells us about openers with interim coach
The Details
Kickoff: Noon Central on Sunday
Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
TV: CBS (Ch. 5) in Kansas City
Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM) in Kansas City
Line: Chiefs by 12 1/2.
Jesse Newell’s prediction
One of the biggest questions with this matchup revolves around Denver ... or, more specifically, if the team will get a boost from a new leader.
The Broncos fired Nathaniel Hackett earlier this week, naming Jerry Rosburg as interim coach.
So does such a move usually help a team relative to its previous performance? Studies actually tell us yes.
Jason Lisk of TeamRankings looked into this topic in October, and according to his research, NFL teams in their first week with an interim coach have gone 14-9 against the spread since 2010. That doesn’t include this year’s Carolina Panthers, who failed to cover in Steve Wilks’ debut, or the Indianapolis Colts, who covered in their first contest under Jeff Saturday.
This trend would seem to make some logical sense. Denver didn’t get high marks for its effort level in its 51-14 Christmas Day loss to the Los Angeles Rams, but you’d expect players potentially to ramp up their energy this week while trying to impress a new coach.
The change at the top shouldn’t alter the Broncos’ overall strengths and weaknesses. Denver has a top-10 defense in nearly every advanced measure while boasting Pro Football Focus’ top NFL team coverage grade.
Offensively, it’s remained a grind. New-addition quarterback Russell Wilson continues to struggle, and Denver’s run game isn’t strong enough to pull its own weight, much less carry a team’s offense.
Turnovers kept KC from pulling away more in its 34-28 road win over Denver earlier this month, and similar self-inflicted mistakes by the Chiefs would result in the most likely path to this rematch being close once again.
I don’t see it, though. The Chiefs’ passing offense — with Patrick Mahomes — is good enough to overcome excellent defenses, and it’s unfair to ask Rosburg to sprinkle pixie dust on Wilson to fix him in a few days.
KC hasn’t always performed great this season in these heavy-favorite-at-home games, but that seems like something that easily can change with a healthy roster and plenty of motivation to stay in the running for the AFC’s 1 seed.
Even if it goes against recent interim-coach tendencies ... give me the Chiefs for both the convincing win and cover.
Chiefs 30, Broncos 13
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas City
Last game prediction: Chiefs 34, Seahawks 14 (Actual: Chiefs 24-10) ✔️
This year’s record vs. spread: 8-7
This story was originally published December 30, 2022 at 7:00 AM with the headline "Chiefs-Broncos prediction: What NFL history tells us about openers with interim coach."
