Chiefs Q&A with ESPN’s Bill Barnwell: Draft needs, TE talk & why KC stands out in NFL
With the NFL Draft in Kansas City just two weeks away, I reached out to ESPN NFL analyst Bill Barnwell this week to get his thoughts on the Chiefs and their upcoming decisions.
Which positions should KC target in the first round? Should tight end be an option? And what does Barnwell think has been the secret to the Chiefs’ success over the last few seasons under general manager Brett Veach and coach Andy Reid?
We get to those Chiefs topics and more in this Q-and-A session.
Newell: In an article last week, you mentioned that the Chiefs could be a candidate to trade up in the draft’s first round. What led you to that thought when looking into the Chiefs’ situation?
Barnwell: I think, looking a little bit at Brett Veach’s history — of course, last year, I believe they did go ahead and trade up — and geohistory tends to be reasonably predictive. I think the famous one is Dave Gettleman (former general manager) with the Giants, where he didn’t trade up for 10 or 15 years between two different jobs where finally, his last year, he went ahead and traded up.
But I think this is a team where, they haven’t really had many opportunities to go out and get that sort of premium talent you’re hoping to land in the first round, because they haven’t had many first-round picks. Part of that was trading for Patrick Mahomes, which I don’t think anyone is gonna sit here and regret when it comes to building the Chiefs’ roster. But I do think they’re in a position where because they’ve drafted well, they’re not one of those teams that is desperate to add maybe a bunch of second- and third- and fourth-round picks because they need them, because they’re hopeless at certain positions on their roster or they’re one injury away from disaster.
This is a deeper team, in part because they traded Tyreek Hill, in part because of some of the decisions they made. I think they’re a deeper team maybe than they were two or three years ago, and so they can maybe be a little aggressive, if they want to go for perhaps a right tackle, if they want to go for help on the edge, if they want to be aggressive for a particular player, I think. Because of the success they’ve had drafting in later rounds in years past, they can sort of afford to do so at this point.
Newell: You referenced in that article that the Chiefs could target a tight end if they moved up in Round 1. But in your Bijan Robinson article this week, you also spoke about how tight ends often don’t produce as much surplus value as other positions in the first round. So how do those two lines of thought mesh up regarding the Chiefs? Do you believe they are in a place to look for a tight end, and would you be comfortable doing that if you were Chiefs GM?
Barnwell: Tight end certainly is a really undervalued position, and I think Travis Kelce, making what amounts to mid-tier No. 2, borderline-top-end No. 2 (receiver) money to be this incredibly game-changing tight end speaks to the weirdness of how the NFL values tight ends versus wide receivers — when Kelce, of course, his numbers every year are wide receiver 1 caliber, and whatever else he does as a tight end ... he’s not a bad blocker by any means. So I think what he adds is a blocker as well only adds to his value.
I would say that I think it does make sense for the Chiefs to be more aggressive maybe than those surplus value calculations — or the money might come into play — for a couple reasons. I would say No. 1, you look at what they did on offense last year, once they traded Tyreek Hill, they got very aggressive going into two-, three-tight end sets. They used multiple tight ends a lot more often than they have in years past and with some success. I think that was a very successful combination for them — their personnel groupings out of 12 (one running back, two tight ends) and 22 (two running backs, two tight ends) and those different groupings. So I think that’s something that they’re going to value perhaps more than other teams.
And then I would say — and I’m gonna sound dumb saying this because the guy doesn’t age — but Travis Kelce is 33 years old. And one of the things I wrote about before last season, and I felt smart until I actually saw Travis Kelce play and then I felt stupid, was no tight end, I think of the last 50 years or close to 50 years of NFL football, had wrapped up 1,000 yards or more at the age of 33 or older. Travis Kelce did it with a couple of games to spare, which is absolutely nuts. It just speaks to obviously his unique ability. The guy is gonna go to Canton one day and join the Hall of Fame for a reason.
But I think if you’re playing more 12 personnel — if you’re preparing for a post-Kelce future, if not now then probably in the next ... I don’t want to throw a number out there, three years, four years — I think you want to start adding another piece to that puzzle. So I wouldn’t be surprised if they were a little more aggressive maybe than the surplus value metric or the financial metrics might say going after a tight end, especially because this is regarded as a very impressive class when it comes to tight ends entering the league.
I think this is regarded as a relatively historic class in terms of top-end tight ends available. So if you’re the Chiefs, and you’re picking in a spot where one of those tight ends is on the board, I think you have to at least give it serious credence the idea of not replacing Kelce right now, but having someone to supplement Kelce and have a guy who can be a threat when Kelce’s not on the field.
Newell: I’ll ask you to put your GM hat on. Looking at team needs and what the Chiefs have, what are you looking for at the end of the first round if you are Brett Veach?
Barnwell: I think I’m looking at right tackle, first and foremost. Obviously, job one, keep Patrick Mahomes afloat. The Super Bowl, I think, is the ultimate story of that a couple of years ago when it comes to how even the best quarterback in football could play really well — I think he did in that game — and still the offense can be shut down if you can’t block and protect for Patrick Mahomes. Andrew Wylie, of course, was a solid player at right tackle, won that job after Lucas Niang got hurt. Niang is still there obviously. You would know better than I would in terms of how much faith the organization has in him at right tackle. I didn’t get the feeling that they were desperate to get him back in the fold when he returned. They spent a lot on Jawaan Taylor now, of course, so left side of that line is very expensive. Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith are going to become eligible for deals next season. They’re going to be expensive if the Chiefs want to keep them. Those are two really good football players.
So I think when you look at right tackle, that’s a position the Chiefs might want to fill for relatively cheap. Right tackle does offer a lot of surplus value. You can get a guy who’s, if playing really well, the top of that market $18, $19 million a year for a player who the Chiefs are only going to pay a few million dollars a year to that could be a really valuable addition.
And then I think I look at edge rusher, where obviously that is in transition. Frank Clark was cut. Carlos Dunlap moved on. George Karlaftis, you’re hoping, of course, is going to take a step forward in his second season. I liked a lot of what I saw from him last year. Charles Omenihu I thought was an underrated player in San Francisco. Of course, they manufacture edge rushers there with Kris Kocurek — their excellent defensive line coach really gets those guys going.
But they (Chiefs) are a team who could add another edge rusher, either in free agency — veteran free agency in the months to come — during the season, of course, they could be in the market for someone who gets traded or gets cut. But it could be a place where they add someone in the first two rounds of the draft as well. So I think I’m generally looking at the line of scrimmage. I mentioned tight end; that’s kind of a, ‘If there’s a great player at the right time,’ I think you go for that too. But I do think right tackle and edge rusher are the two spots that stand out to me.
Newell: I know some mock drafts have the Chiefs go receiver in Round 1, and they’ve been linked to some free-agent wideouts this offseason they didn’t get. What are your thoughts on receiver for the Chiefs and if something makes sense in the first round there?
Barnwell: Yeah, I think it depends on if they have someone they love. I don’t think they need to take someone. I don’t think they’re desperate for assistance at wide receiver, and I think Kadarius Toney thing is a good example. I don’t think everyone would have expected he’d be traded going into his second season with the Giants, but the Chiefs were able to get a guy who had a first-round grade for something less than first-round draft capital. And, of course, we’re still waiting to see what he does in Kansas City. He was hurt for most of last year. He had a big presence in the Super Bowl, played a big role. I think he can be an impressive receiver when he’s healthy next year.
I still have faith in Skyy Moore stepping into his second season, taking a large role in the lineup. I think Marquez Valdes-Scantling, we saw in the AFC Championship Game, when he had to step up because of injuries and that he had a big game there.
I think it was a very conscious choice the Chiefs made after they traded Tyreek Hill. I think they sort of wanted to have more options for Patrick Mahomes. They didn’t want to be so dependent on Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce being not just the focal points of the offense, but really the sole receivers on this offense where it wasn’t going to be very successful if those guys were covered. We saw in that Bengals game in the AFC Championship Game two years ago where they were getting doubled and Patrick Mahomes was really struggling to find an answer. I think that he had more answers last year, even if they weren’t as dynamic perhaps as a Tyreek Hill when you match them up one-on-one.
So I think they’re going to generally continue that philosophy. If something happens where ... DeAndre Hopkins gets cut, and he wants to come play for the Chiefs, I don’t think they’re gonna say no, but I do think that that’s a position where they’re going to at least while Kelce is still playing at this level, go with quantity perhaps over really getting that No. 1 guy. So you never want to say never, but I would be surprised if they went and drafted a wide receiver in the first round.
Newell: Last one: Just taking a step back from the draft. The Chiefs just won the Super Bowl ... when you look at Brett Veach, Andy Reid, what they’ve done, what are some of the most impressive things you think have set them up for success not only last year but in future years?
Barnwell: That’s a really good question. That’d be a whole article, I think, if I got to really dive into that.
I think this is a team that really has faith in their ability to draft and develop talent. And I know last year when the Rams won the Super Bowl, there was kind of that whole, ‘Eff them picks,’ thing and everyone was like, ‘Oh, let’s just trade away all our draft picks,’ and that was overstated. I don’t think every team believes that, or even the Rams you know, kind of were doing it sheepishly, because their two best players, of course, were Cooper Kupp, a third-round pick, and Aaron Donald, and first-round pick who they both drafted.
But I don’t think there are a lot of teams, especially with Patrick Mahomes in the prime of his career, and in the prime of his career hopefully for years to come — that would trade Tyreek Hill, that would let Orlando Brown leave, that would trust that they can let Frank Clark leave and they can replace him, that they can let Tyrann Mathieu leave and that they’re going to replace him. They trade Marcus Peters a few years ago — this is not even a recent thing with the Chiefs. They’re very aggressive when it comes to trusting that they can draft and develop talent. And that doesn’t mean it’s gonna be all first-rounders. It could be someone like Trey Smith, who gets drafted in the sixth round. It could be a Tyreek Hill getting drafted in the middle rounds, or Travis Kelce being a third-round pick.
I think there are teams out there who are scared — really scared of drafting and developing talent, of letting guys who they’ve developed leave, because they’re afraid that they can’t do the same thing again.
And I think center’s actually maybe even the best example, where you had Mitch Morse come in and Mitch Morse was excellent for the Chiefs. Mitch Morse leaves, and Rodney Hudson takes over, and Rodney Hudson becomes a super-talented center. And then, they have to move on. They have Austin Reiter there for a bit, but then you bring in Creed Humphrey, and Creed Humphrey is now one of the best centers in football. And you have to have a coaching staff you trust to develop players. You have a scouting staff you trust who can identify the right players. And you have to have patience. There’s going to be hiccups. There’s going to be bad games, bad moments. You have to coach those guys up so they’re going to be playing at a higher level.
So I think that sort of trust in your coaching staff and your ability to do your job when it comes to taking on players in the draft and getting them better, that’s how you build a consistent winning football team. And Andy Reid did that in Philadelphia, and I think we’ve seen that overwhelmingly over the course of his time in Kansas City.
This story was originally published April 13, 2023 at 6:00 AM with the headline "Chiefs Q&A with ESPN’s Bill Barnwell: Draft needs, TE talk & why KC stands out in NFL."
