The 5 best fits for KC Chiefs in 2023 NFL Draft — and the likelihood they’ll get them
As part of their exercise in preparing for the NFL Draft, members of the Chiefs front office gather in a room and roll through as many of the potential scenarios as they think they might encounter. It’s their own version of mock drafts, but equipped with perhaps a bit more information.
Well, to a certain extent.
As much as you can prepare your own draft haul, the truly unpredictable nature of the exercise is forecasting what the other 31 teams might do.
Who will be the actual best player available? Or, what the Chiefs should be asking Thursday in the opening round: Who will be the best player available at a premium position?
As discussed earlier this week, the Chiefs’ needs (defensive end, defensive tackle, offensive tackle and wide receiver) conveniently fit with what the recent data suggests are the positions every team should be targeting in the early rounds of the draft.
So that’s the exercise we’ll go through below. Which players — at those four premium positions — represent the best potential fits for the Chiefs? And what are the odds they will be available?
For the latter question, I’ll refer to the ESPN Analytics draft-day predictor (a really fun tool) and note that only those with a realistic chance of being available have cracked the list.
1. Will McDonald, Iowa State, edge
What he lacks in weight, he makes up for with athleticism — and then some. His explosiveness off the edge is the trait that pops most, and the trait that makes him a perfect fit for the Chiefs.
A year ago, they used a first-round pick on defensive end George Karlaftis, but these are different players and ideally complementary players. McDonald needs to add some weight to reach his full potential, but he’s the third-down sack artist off the edge that the Chiefs have needed for a while now — one built on speed and flexibility.
It’s more than an afterthought that McDonald’s arms measured 34 7/8 inches, making him one of the lengthier edge rushers in this draft. That’s a trait the Chiefs and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo have long coveted.
• Chances he’s available at No. 31: About 70%
2. Anton Harrison, Oklahoma, tackle
If the Chiefs are drafting purely based on the position that includes the most glaring hole, they’re taking a right tackle. That’s not how they should be drafting, but it’s possible that need and best player available at a premium position find a marriage at No. 31 with Harrison.
He is 6-foot-4, 315 pounds, but is more nimble than his weight would suggest. While he played left tackle the past two seasons in college, he could slide to the right side as a rookie, with Jawaan Taylor having the flexibility to play on the left.
Harrison allowed only nine pressures on his 447 pass-blocking snaps, per Pro Football Focus, which also charged him with just three sacks allowed in the past two seasons.
So why is he still available late in the first round? Harrison isn’t known to be the most athletic tackle, and there are questions about how his college scheme (RPO) has prepared him for the NFL.
• Chances he’s available at No. 31: About 80%
3. Zay Flowers, Boston College, wide receiver
There are a lot of people who would have Flowers atop this list, but I just like the fit McDonald and Harrison provide. But make no mistake — Flowers fits better in KC than perhaps anywhere else.
Andy Reid would be concerned less with Flowers’ size — he’s just 5-foot-9 — than most of his peers because he’s made better use of smaller stature receivers than just about all of his peers. Flowers is an expert at creating space, and there’s perhaps no better trait in Reid’s offense than a guy who can not only operate in space but create it himself.
The 4.4 speed helps, but it’s short-sighted to think that’s the only responsible element for his 1,077-yard, 12-touchdown senior season. He has a quick change of pace, easing his transition off the line of scrimmage.
If there’s one stretch on this list in terms of potential availability, it’s Flowers.
• Chances he’s available at No. 31: About 15%
4. Quentin Johnston, TCU, wide receiver
It’s the obvious measurements that stand out. Johnston is a big target at 6-foot-3, 208 pounds. He had 60 catches for 1,069 yards and six touchdowns as a junior.
Johnston is a natural fit to replace the JuJu Smith-Schuster role as the X receiver in the Chiefs offense. He finished second among all FBS receivers in yards after the catch, per The Athletic’s Dane Brugler.
The downside? There are a couple. You can find the weaknesses in any draft prospect if you look hard enough, but Johnston’s eight drops aren’t hard to find. He needs to be more consistent, and you’d like him to use his size more frequently.
• Chances he’s available at No. 31: About 35%
5. Mazi Smith, Michigan, defensive tackle
I’ll apologize in advance for the lack of excitement here, because Smith’s numbers won’t pop, and neither will his highlights. (He didn’t even have a full sack last year.) But he’s a difference marker in the middle of a defensive line. The 6-foot-3, 323-pound frame helps. He gets double-teamed so frequently that he seems to seek them out, and that’s why he grabs the final spot on this list — if the initial four are off the board.
Chris Jones has spent his career fighting off double teams — yet still producing. Can you imagine the output Jones could have if he’s facing one-on-one matchups on all early downs?
• Chances he’s available at No. 31: About 85%
This story was originally published April 26, 2023 at 5:45 AM with the headline "The 5 best fits for KC Chiefs in 2023 NFL Draft — and the likelihood they’ll get them."