Don’t start packing the Rams for LA just yet

A comparative handful of die-hard St. Louis Rams fans will file through the gates at the Edward Jones Dome Thursday with a sickening, sad feeling.

Legions more, too miffed to confront their emotions, will stay home and try to resist the urge to turn on the TV.

They’ve already lost the NFL twice, once when the Cardinals moved to Arizona and again when the St. Louis Purple Stallions were passed over for an expansion team in Jacksonville, Fla.

This time there’s the added agony of uncertainty. Will Thursday’s game against Tampa Bay be the Rams’ last as their home team?

Owner Stan Kroenke’s vast wealth and the glitz of the Los Angeles market make St. Louis look vulnerable again. I confess that in my own manic moments, I’ve written off the Rams and placed my own team loyalties out for bid.

Considering the current trajectory of things, though, I’m betting St. Louis and the NFL will stay together, at least for another year if not longer.

If you haven’t been keeping up, here are some of the reasons why:

STADIUM PROGRESS

Anything will look good on paper and in fancy digital animation. But David Peacock and the rest of the Missouri governor’s stadium task force are well beyond the proposal stage. Otherwise, the Los Angeles Rams would already be selling season tickets.

The task force has a developed financing plan, lease terms and have already secured a 20-year, $158 million stadium naming rights agreement with National Car Rental.

The league has had no choice but to take notice. Consider these comments made to the Houston Chronicle by Texans owner Bob McNair, who sits on the NFL committee for LA relocation and heads its finance committee. He would know.

“St. Louis, they have come up with a proposal that is getting pretty close, in my opinion, to being an attractive proposal,” he said. “And if they do come up with an attractive proposal, then in my view, my personal opinion, I don’t think the Rams will receive the approval to relocate.”

THE NFL HAS AN ALTERNATIVE

Of course the NFL still wants a franchise in the nation’s second largest market and Kroenke’s deep pockets and land partnership offers an immediate solution.

But both the Oakland Raiders and San Diego Chargers have been monkeying around for years to get out of their current leases and have since partnered for a third viable stadium plan in the Los Angeles suburb of Carson.

Chargers’ owner Dean Spanos and Raiders owner Mark Davis both told the New York Times that Kroenke attempted to break up their partnership by offering them a piece of his proposed stadium in Inglewood. And both said they deposited that offer “in the trash.”

In the meantime, the NFL recruited Disney Co. CEO Bob Iger to head up the committee to plan the Chargers-Raiders partnership, a sign that project is gaining traction as well.

THE FINANCING MAKES SENSE

Two big developments this week further advanced the cause of the new St. Louis riverfront stadium, both of which involve money.

First, the St. Louis Board of Alderman advanced the measure that would commit the city to its share of the total costs. The final vote is expected Friday.

Second, the NFL has committed additional money to the project, bringing its total share of the billion dollar project to $300 million. In exchange, the city has agreed to rebate about $3 million annually from an amusement tax back to the team owner, whether it’s Kroenke and the Rams or another team.

The city furthermore will raise the rent to $1.5 million per year with those funds earmarked toward payment of the construction bonds. Remember, no new bond issuance is required since the stadium can be financed through the bonds already issued for the construction of the Edward Jones Dome back in 1994.

KROENKE LACKS SUPPPORT

Three-quarters of the NFL owners have to approve the Rams’ move to LA. Right now Kroenke doesn’t appear to have those votes, mostly because he hasn’t lived up to the NFL bylaws for relocation.

The league constitution is clear that a team cannot relocate simply because it sees opportunity to grow its profits. It has to show cause, then exhaust “with good faith” all efforts to find a solution in its original market.

Kroenke trotted out plans to renovate the Edward Jones Dome that were expensive — some estimates were as high as $750 million — and offered no long-term guarantee that the team would even stay. Then he disappeared, refusing until recently to even meet with the Peacock group on its plans for the north riverfront.

That’s hardly “exhaustive” or “good faith.” The other NFL owners see right through him.

Here’s the bottom line: the NFL isn’t motivated to do what’s best for Stan Kroenke, the city of Los Angeles or St. Louis. It’s going to do what’s best for the NFL.

The league has already decided that what’s best is a team in LA and there’s no doubt Kroenke’s wish to move the Rams offers the most immediate solution.

But what’s better for the NFL in the long term? Two brand new stadiums with two teams in Los Angeles and one in St. Louis, or one new stadium in Los Angeles for the Rams and two teams still looking for a new home?

NFL commissioner Roger Goodell has told us we can expect that decision to be made sometime next month.

In the meantime, my loyalties are not up for bid just yet.

This story was originally published December 16, 2015 at 8:07 PM with the headline "Don’t start packing the Rams for LA just yet."