Census Bureau: St. Clair, Madison counties are losing people

In 2014, the Air Force announced it would cut about 300 jobs at Scott Air Force Base. The next year, the Census Bureau released estimates that St. Clair County’s population dropped by 1,300 people from 2013 to 2014.

“When the federal government takes jobs away from Scott, those families move because they’re with the Air Force, transferred someplace else or other branches of the service,” said St. Clair County Board Chairman Mark Kern.

“It’s probably largely attributable to Scott, but we really don’t know because it’s merely an estimate, ” Kern added.

Even though the St. Louis metropolitan area grew slightly in population from 2013 to 2014, the U.S. Census Bureau estimates both Madison and St. Clair counties are shrinking in population.

Madison County dropped by about 700 people, according to new Census Bureau estimates.

The numbers look more grim when taking into account the 2010 Census counts.

Madison County is down more than 2,700 people from its 2010 census count. St. Clair is down 4,300 people, according to Census estimates.

The 2014 estimates show more people are moving out of the counties to other places within the United States.

Kern said St. Clair is working hard to bring employers to help the population grow.

He emphasized the numbers released by the Census Bureau are only estimates rather than an actual count, which takes place every 10 years.

“When census came out (in 2010,) our population had exceeded Madison County,” Kern said. “Their estimates did not point towards that until they did a census last time and found that we grew.”

“That’s why we’re focusing on trying to bring (National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency) here,” Kern added. “There’s potential for 4,000 jobs that would bring a lot of families to St. Clair County. We continue to fight hard. We brought Boeing here, we brought North Bay Produce here.”

Both Madison and St. Clair counties have seen net gains in people moving to the counties from outside of the country. That figure includes people who are foreign-born, from Puerto Rico, and Armed Forces personnel moving from overseas back to the United States.

Monroe County has shown consistent, albeit small, growth in population since 2010. The census bureau estimates it has grown by 765 people since 2010.

Bond County’s population has dropped, the Census Bureau estimates, and even though the Census Bureau estimates Clinton County saw a slight drop from 2013 to 2014, the county is still believed to have a higher population than it had in 2010.

Overall, the St. Louis Metropolitan area increased by about 4,600 people from 2013 to 2014, the Census Bureau estimated. Its growth was aided by the higher amount of births in the area when compared to deaths, and a net gain in international migration.

The Census Bureau estimates annual population changes by using birth and death certificate data, as well as address changes on tax returns, said Public Information Officer Robert Bernstein.

Bernstein added estimates for cities and towns are scheduled to be released in May. Later this year, data is scheduled to be released about age, race and gender demographics, as well as educational attainment, length of commute to work, business patterns, and payroll.

Overall population for an area is important because it helps determine representation in elected legislatures, as well as funding allocations for local governments.

“When you grow, your revenues grows,” Kern said. “It allows us then to keep our (county) tax rates at the same low levels they’ve been in the past.”

Kern said he believes the county’s population will have grown by the time of the 2020 census, and pointed to the efforts of Terry Beach, who runs the county’s economic development and intergovernmental grants departments.

“Terry Beach is working hard to make sure we do everything we can to make sure we better the quality of life in St. Clair County. We continue to improve bike trails, transit. We’re the only downstate county with a light-rail system,” Kern said. “There are a lot of reasons to be in St. Clair County. We believe that we will see growth by the next census. The actual figures will show growth.”

Madison County Administrator Joe Parente said the estimated drop is consistent with trends in the state and in the Midwest, especially as the effects of the Great Recession are still felt.

“We’ve seen fewer housing starts because of the housing bubble burst,” Parente said.

If deaths outnumber births, the area can make up for the drop with housing starts or an influx of jobs, Parente said.

“With the after-effects of the great recession, things haven’t picked up yet,” Parente said.

He did point out there is construction in the Lakeview Commerce Center and the Gateway Commerce Center, which leads to people moving to the area for work.

“We continue to have a lot of new jobs created there,” Parente said.

He also emphasized the latest numbers are just estimates and not an acutal count by the Census Bureau.

“We continue to have businesses move into Madison County,” Parente said. “That tells you something is right.”

Onesimo Sandoval, associate professor of sociology at Saint Louis University, said he doesn’t think the drop in population is a long-term trend.

“I think the region is fairly stable,” Sandoval said. “I would be concerned if the overall metro area for St. Louis was declining.”

However, the level of property taxes could be a detriment to population growth, Sandoval said.

Property values might be cheaper on the Illinois side of the region, but the property taxes are higher.

There is a migration of people moving from Belleville to O’Fallon, Sandoval said.

Sandoval added St. Louis itself might be dropping in population until 2020 because the number of children being born can’t keep up with the migration of residents out of town.

Other factors that might help lead to more people moving to the Illinois side of the border are lower fees for immigrants to do paperwork, Sandoval said.

“Symbolically for immigrants it’s a big difference,” Sandoval said. “For immigrants, this gets out to the network.”

According to Census Bureau estimates, Bond, Clinton, Madison and St. Clair counties all saw net gains in international migration.

The events of August involving the shooting death of Michael Brown might lead to a demographic shock in the region, and could lead to internal migration of people to the metro-east and continued migration to St. Charles County in Missouri, Sandoval said.

It will probably take about two years’ worth of data to see if a demographic shock materializes due to that, Sandoval said.

“If you see big numbers in the next two years, this is probably why,” Sandoval said.

“If we see a decline for the entire metro region, it would be a huge wake-up call to leaders that the St. Louis region reputation took a hit,” Sandoval said.

This story was originally published April 11, 2015 at 11:07 AM with the headline "Census Bureau: St. Clair, Madison counties are losing people."