Local races drawing campaign cash: Makeup of state legislature at stake in election

Among the decisions voters in Illinois will get to make during the Nov. 8 election is what the balance of power will be in the state General Assembly for the next two years.

Democrats hold supermajorities of 71-47 in the House and 39-20 in the Senate. The makeup of the legislature after the election could sway the ongoing battle over the state’s budget.

However, out of the 158 races for seats in the legislature during this cycle, only 64 have multiple candidates.

Repubican Gov. Bruce Rauner and Democrats in the General Assembly have been at a stalemate over how to find a long-term solution to the state’s financial problems. Rauner has called for business-friendly reforms, while Democratic Speaker of the House Michael Madigan has called for tax increases.

David Yepsen, the director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University, said the campaign for control in the legislature is really a proxy war between two agendas: Rauner’s and Madigan’s.

“There’s a media campaign that’s all about whether you’re tied to Madigan or tied to Rauner,” Yepsen said.

“The Republicans would like to pick up enough seats in the House to beat the veto-proof majority,” Yepsen added. “Madigan would like to increase his numbers, maybe change some faces, and he may get a working supermajority.”

He said if Democrats gain seats, and have a supermajority that functions, Madigan might be able to get what he wants passed.

“Then you will start seeing attempts to override Rauner vetoes,” Yepsen said.

If Rauner and Republicans are able to eat into the the Democratic majorities, there may be even more gridlock, Yepsen said.

“We don’t have a working majority now,” Yepsen said. “If we don’t have one the day after the election, what’s going to change?”

Yepsen said Rauner’s poor approval ratings might be something Democrats keep in mind and try to exploit.

“Rauner has shown a willingness to compromise, but he has to be given something,” Yepsen said. “I don’t know if the Democrats are willing to give something to him.”

With it being a presidential election year, Rauner is at a disadvantage because there is usually a higher Democratic turnout in Illinois, particularly with minority groups and millennials, Yepsen said.

Rauner also has a problem with the top of the ticket, Yepsen said, with Donald Trump running for president with high unfavorables, and U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk, R-Illinois, fighting to keep his seat.

“It’s not like you have popular Republicans drawing people to the polls,” Yepsen said.

While appearing at the Illinois State Fair this week, Rauner promised that Republicans would outspend Democrats this fall in a GOP effort to reclaim the Illinois General Assembly.

“This year, we're going to go toe-to-toe with them,” Rauner told the party’s county chairmen at an event starting the Illinois Republican Party Governor’s Day at the Illinois State Fair.

Rauner said Democrats have far outspent the GOP in recent elections, but “we're going to do better than they do. You'll see the biggest ground game ever for legislative races in Illinois.”

He did not mention the source of funding, but he has previously poured millions of his personal wealth into party coffers. He also has a political action committee to tout his Turnaround Agenda for the state.

Individual races could be hotly contested, judging by the fundraising totals reported since the beginning of the year through mid-August.

From Jan. 1 through mid-August, state Rep. Dan Beiser, D-Alton, has raised $194,823. His Republican opponent, Mike Babcock, who launched his campaign in May, has raised $148,336, according to state Board of Elections records.

The race for the 58th District state senate seat, where David Luechtefeld, R-Okawville, is leaving office, also has seen money coming in.

Democratic contender for the seat and former Lt. Gov. Sheila Simon has raised $108,859. Republican Paul Schimpf has raised $147,025 since Jan. 1, records say.

With the money coming in, it means certain areas will see lots of television advertisements trying to sway voters, such as in Beiser-Babcock race.

Babcock’s campaign committee bought up 744 30-second spots in the Alton and Maryville areas for about $31,350 just during the second week of August, according to FCC records.

Citizens for Beiser bought up 1,309 30-second spots for more than $59,000 to run during the second half of August on cable in the Alton and Maryville areas, Spectrum Reach records say.

The Alton and Madison-Maryville areas also are seeing ads from the Turnaround Illinois super PAC, a PAC that supports Rauner’s agenda, and the Illinois House Republican Organization.

Illinois House Republican Organization spent more than $24,200 for 457 30-second spots in the Alton and Maryville areas just during the third week of August, Spectrum Reach records say.

Turnaround Illinois purchased 491 30-second spots for about $12,500 to run on cable channels during the second half of August in the Alton and Maryville areas, according to FCC records.

Yepsen said he wouldn’t be surprised if there was very little change in the legislature after the election, and compared the fight for power to a World War I battle.

“Blood and treasure spent for little ground,” Yepsen said.

Rauner spoke about the upcoming elections during a recent visit to the metro-east where the first-term governor called for term limits and legislative redistricting reform.

“Frankly if the supermajority gets bigger, if they gain more power in November, they’re not going to want to take on the reforms that we need,” Rauner said. “Democracy doesn’t work well in a one-party basis. We need two parties competing in a balance of ideas. If there’s a balance between the two parties, we’ll get some big reforms and we’ll get the state going in the right direction.”

Beiser, speaking outside the opening of his campaign office in Wood River, said some members of the current supermajority don’t always vote with Madigan.

“I think the supermajority aspect is somewhat overblown. I don’t think there truly is a supermajority,” Beiser said.

Beiser said he doesn’t agree with Rauner’s push to curtail union bargaining power in the state.

“Typically that’s more of a Democratic priority that would be very important to keep as many Democrats in the General Assembly as possible to protect the ability to bargain for wages and benefits, and to make sure the prevailing wage provisions stay in place,” Beiser said.

Beiser acknowledged Rauner has the financial ability to target districts to try to flip them.

“The strategy he’s using, which is to attack the speaker, attack certain districts and members that represent those, that’s a strategy that’s not new, it’s been tried before,” Beiser said. “He obviously has enormous wealth to put behind it, and he’s using it.”

This story was originally published August 20, 2016 at 12:21 PM with the headline "Local races drawing campaign cash: Makeup of state legislature at stake in election."