Latest projections say Hurricane Irma will strike the Florida Keys early Sunday

Conditions in the Florida Keys will become increasingly dangerous as Hurricane Irma closes in over the next day, National Hurricane Center forecasters said in their 2 p.m. update Saturday.

In their latest advisory, forecasters said Irma was located 145 miles southeast of Key West, with sustained winds of 125 mph, making it a Category 3 storm. Irma’s fierce eye will keep moving over the north coast of Cuba today. Once it clears the island and moves over warm water in the Florida Straits, it could strengthen. Major hurricane winds should reach the Keys at daybreak Sunday, creating life-threatening and catastrophic conditions, they said.

The National Weather Office in Key West was more blunt: “This is as real as it gets,” the office posted, in all caps, on its latest bulletin. “Nowhere in the Florida Keys will be safe.”

Already ranked as one of the most powerful hurricanes on record, Irma weakened slightly Saturday when it stalled over Cuba, battering the north coast. But it’s expected to regain strength as it heads back into open waters before striking the Keys.

"Immediate concern right now is anyone in the Florida Keys," hurricane specialist Mike Brennan said. "Your life may be at risk."

Early Saturday, tropical storm force winds had started lashing parts of the Florida chain of islands, pushing storm surge ashore. Water level was up more than three quarters of a foot in Key West after 10 a.m. The center of the storm is not expected to pass until Sunday morning, before heading to Florida’s Gulf Coast. Winds well in excess of 100 mph are expected but the real worry is storm surge, which could push the Atlantic into the streets of Key West, Marathon and other islands.

Along the Gulf Coast, forecasters warned flooding from storm surge could be catastrophic.

"This is a big hurricane," said Jamie Rhome, NHC storm surge team leader. "And big hurricanes push more water."

Rhome warned everyone in Southwest Florida to leave, saying Irma, a vastly bigger storm with hurricane winds extending 70 miles from its center, poses far more danger than previous hurricanes.

Where Irma ultimately makes landfall on the mainland remains uncertain because of the storm’s angle to the coast, National Hurricane Center forecasters said.

The storm’s center could near Tampa, which has not been struck by a major hurricane since October 1921, when the population was about 10,000, said hurricane center spokesman Dennis Feltgen. About 4 million people now live in the low-lying area.

“Big difference,” he said. “They’re incredibly vulnerable.”

Irma will begin crossing the straits from Cuba to Florida early Sunday. Hurricane and storm surge advisories have been widened in Florida and up the U.S. east coast.

The Keys should brace for a “very life-threatening event,” Brennan said, with storm surge capable of reaching 10 feet above ground level.

Miami and the southeast coast of Florida have dodged a direct hit from the storm, but the east coast can still expect dangerous storm surge as strong winds push water inland and feeder bands drop heavy rain. Storm bands reaching Miami with squally rains and winds beginning just after 7 a.m. — signaling the storm’s astonishing reach. Storm surge pushed water levels 1.27 feet above normal with a gust nearing 50 mph.

A tornado watch was issued just after noon until midnight, with the National Weather Service warning that Irma’s approaching bands has raised the risk. Wind gusts could also reach 70 mph, they said. The watch stretches across the state.

Long periods of thunderstorms should begin tonight as conditions worsen, said Mark DeMaria, the acting deputy director of the National Hurricane Center.

"This is a major storm surge threat, a major wind threat for a large portion of Southwest Florida," he said.

Irma remains massive, with tropical storm force winds extending 195 miles — making it wider than the state. Its eye shrank dramatically overnight, from more than 45 miles wide to just over 11. The storm is expected to batter Florida for at least two days, Brennan said. But hurricane wobbles are notorious, and forecast tracks can still be off by about 90 miles at two days, Brennan said. Saturday morning, Irma unexpectedly plowed ashore Cuba’s north coast.

Along Florida’s Gulf Coast, flooding is expected to be widespread, with dangerous and potentially catastrophic storm surge rolling up and down the Florida coast.

Heavy rain could worsen flooding. Up to 15 inches are possible in the Keys, with up to 20 inches in some places. The Florida mainland is expected to get between eight and 15 inches.

The record-breaking hurricane — Irma accumulated more wind energy in 48 hours than any hurricane ever recorded — has been menacing south Florida for days. Track forecasts earlier pointed it to the urban east coast, home to more than 6 million, triggering frantic preparations. Evacuations were ordered that affected about 680,000 people in Miami-Dade alone. Gas pumps ran dry. Store shelves quickly emptied.

As forecasts began shifting west, taking the storm up the center of the state, evacuations increased to eventually cover nearly 20 counties.

This story was originally published September 9, 2017 at 2:54 PM with the headline "Latest projections say Hurricane Irma will strike the Florida Keys early Sunday."