Will this summer be sweltering in Illinois? What forecasters, Farmers’ Almanac expect
The first official day of summer arrives with the solstice June 20, and warmer weather is already hitting the metro-east.
Meteorological summer in the greater St. Louis region typically runs June through August, Jared Maples, meteorologist with the National Weather Service St. Louis office, said in a recent interview with the News-Democrat. July and August are generally the hottest months, and it’s not unusual for temperatures to surpass 100 degrees Fahrenheit some days.
Belleville sees average temperatures between 64.5 and 87.3 degrees in June, 67.8 to 90.2 degrees in July and 65.3 to 89.1 degrees in August, according to data from the NWS.
This spring has seen a particularly active weather pattern across the region. The NWS St. Louis office had issued the third-greatest number of severe weather warnings in the U.S. at one point in May, second only to two Oklahoma offices.
But what will this summer be like? Here’s what NWS meteorologists forecast, along with a seasonal prediction from the Farmers’ Almanac.
Summer forecast from the National Weather Service
Southwestern Illinois and the St. Louis area have roughly a 33 to 40% chance of seeing above-normal temperatures this summer, according to the NWS seasonal temperature outlook.
“We are favored to be warmer than normal,” Maples said. “Those chances or probabilities aren’t on the higher end, but they are leaning in that favor.”
Drier weather tends to bring warmer temperatures, while precipitation can lead to thunderstorms and potentially severe weather. It’s unclear whether the St. Louis region will experience above- or below-normal rainfall this summer, but farther south in Illinois, the NWS forecasts a slight chance of above-normal precipitation.
Belleville sees an average of 4.62 inches of precipitation each June, 4.03 inches in July and 3.92 inches in August, the NWS reports.
El Niño typically causes warmer weather in the winter, but Maples said the difference isn’t as noticeable in the summertime. The El Niño pattern is expected to end by June, the forecaster continued, so it likely won’t affect this summer’s weather too much.
Farmers’ Almanac prediction
The Farmers’ Almanac predicts “muggy, stormy” weather in Illinois and nearby and “warm, seasonably stormy” conditions in Missouri and surrounding states.
The almanac also reports this year’s summer solstice will be the “earliest start in 128 years” and says this summer could “bring the hottest temperatures in recorded history.”
The Farmers’ Almanac makes predictions based on a mysterious formula that considers factors such as planetary positioning, sunspot activity and tidal action of the moon.
“The only person who knows the exact formula is the Farmers’ Almanac weather prognosticator who goes by the pseudonym of Caleb Weatherbee,” the organization’s website says. “To protect this proprietary formula, the editors of the Farmers’ Almanac prefer to keep both Caleb’s true identity and the formula a closely guarded brand secret.”
The almanac has provided extended forecasts since 1818, according to its website.
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