Warmer, spring-like weather is headed to the metro-east. Here’s when and what to expect
As the metro-east faces bitterly cold temperatures this week due to a polar vortex, residents can look forward to warmer temperatures and a respite from snow soon.
In the short-term, temperatures will progressively warm Friday, Feb. 21 and Saturday, Feb. 22, Lydia Jaja, meteorologist with the National Weather Service St. Louis office, told the News-Democrat in a Feb. 19 interview.
The agency’s cold weather advisory ended Thursday afternoon, and temperatures are expected to range from 13 to 25 degrees Fahrenheit Friday and 23 to 37 degrees Saturday in Belleville. Southwestern Illinois should see snow begin to substantially melt Sunday, Feb. 23 as the forecast calls for high temperatures in the upper-40s.
It’s unclear how long this warm-up will last, but meteorological spring begins Saturday, March 1. The season officially starts on the Thursday, March 20 spring equinox, and daylight saving time begins Sunday, March 9.
“So we’re getting into the time of year where those normals really start hopping up pretty quickly because we’re gaining so much sun,” Jaja said.
Groundhog Punxsutawney Phil, a folklore legend, predicted Feb. 2 the U.S. would see six more weeks of winter.
Here’s what to know about this spring’s weather, including forecast information from the National Weather Service and a prediction from the popular Farmers’ Almanac.
Spring weather forecast
The federal Climate Prediction Center released its latest three-month seasonal outlook Feb. 20 for March, April and May.
The seasonal temperature outlook reports most of Illinois and Missouri, including the metro-east and St. Louis region, has roughly equal chances of above- or below-normal temperatures for the three-month period.
The seasonal precipitation outlook puts Illinois in two different zones, both of which indicate at least a slight chance of above-normal precipitation. The metro-east has about a 40 to 50% chance of seeing more precipitation than normal, the map shows.
Here are springtime precipitation and temperature normals for Belleville, using NWS data from 1991 to 2020:
March:
Total normal precipitation: 3.44 inches
Average overall temperature: 47.8 degrees
Average low temperature: 36.3 degrees
Average high temperature: 59.2 degrees
April:
Total normal precipitation: 4.9 inches
Average overall temperature: 58.3 degrees
Average low temperature: 46 degrees
Average high temperature: 70.6 degrees
May:
Total normal precipitation: 5.05 inches
Average overall temperature: 67.7 degrees
Average low temperature: 56.3 degrees
Average high temperature: 79.1 degrees
June:
Total normal precipitation: 4.62 inches
Average overall temperature: 75.9 degrees
Average low temperature: 64.5 degrees
Average high temperature: 87.3 degrees
What does the Farmers’ Almanac predict?
The Farmers’ Almanac reports the U.S. will see lingering winter conditions and a slow spring arrival this year.
The metro-east is situated in the middle of two almanac prediction zones for this spring’s forecast: “cool, showery” and “very cool, wet.”
“Temperatures will run somewhat coolish for the northern and central regions, especially for the Pacific Northwest, even into the month of June,” the almanac’s prediction reads. “The exceptions will be across the Southern States, where temperatures are expected to run a bit milder than average.”
The Farmers’ Almanac makes predictions based on a mysterious formula that considers factors such as planetary positioning, sunspot activity and tidal action of the moon.
“The only person who knows the exact formula is the Farmers’ Almanac weather prognosticator who goes by the pseudonym of Caleb Weatherbee,” the organization’s website says. “To protect this proprietary formula, the editors of the Farmers’ Almanac prefer to keep both Caleb’s true identity and the formula a closely guarded brand secret.”
The almanac has provided extended predictions since 1818, according to its website.
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