How late will Belleville’s first frost come? When forecasters, almanac expect it
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- NWS forecast through Tuesday, Oct. 14 shows lows near 42 degrees; first frost likely in late October.
- Farmers’ Almanac places first frost near early November for the area.
- Metro-east faces drought; Climate Prediction Center projects mixed winter odds.
St. Louis has just seen the fourth-warmest start to October on record, and Belleville is seeing similar above-average temperatures.
The average first frost in Belleville is Oct. 8, Lydia Jaja, meteorologist with the National Weather Service St. Louis office, told the News-Democrat this week. The first frost date is the first day of the season when the temperature hits 36 degrees Fahrenheit or lower, while the first freeze date is when the temperature hits 32 degrees.
The NWS’ forecast goes out through Wednesday, Oct. 15, and the lowest temperature expected in Belleville’s latest forecast is 43 degrees.
“The cold front that moved through yesterday or early this week did cool us down, but likely not enough to reach frost freeze,” Jaja said Oct. 8.
Belleville typically sees its first freeze around Oct. 14, Jaja continued, and it seems likely the first freeze will come later than usual this year.
The latest first frost on record for Belleville is Nov. 6. While it’s not clear whether Belleville will break the record this year, Jaja said her best guess is the city’s first frost will come in late October.
The NWS’ Climate Prediction Center reports the metro-east has equal chances of seeing below- or above-normal temperatures from December to February, with a 33 to 40% chance of above-normal precipitation over the three-month period.
It’s been particularly dry across the metro-area recently, and the U.S. Drought Monitor reports much of the region is seeing “severe drought.” St. Louis saw its 13th-driest September on record this year, Jaja said. There is no precipitation expected in the next few days either.
AccuWeather provides longer-range forecasts and reports Belleville isn’t expected to hit 36 degrees, the temperature needed for a first frost, until Nov. 4.
The average first freeze dates in southern Illinois range from Oct. 11 to Nov. 20, according to NWS data, while most of central Illinois sees its first freeze between Oct. 11 to 20. The Illinois State Climatologist recommends residents prepare any tender plants two weeks before the average first frost date in case of an early frost.
What does the Farmers’ Almanac predict?
The Farmers’ Almanac doesn’t provide an average first frost date specific to Belleville, but offers a prediction for St. Louis. The city has an average first fall frost date of Oct. 31, the almanac reports. The publication also says St. Louis’ average last spring frost is April 7.
The Farmers’ Almanac also reports the metro-east will see a “very cold” and “snowy” winter this year.
The organization makes predictions based on a mysterious formula that considers factors such as planetary positioning, sunspot activity and tidal action of the moon.
“The only person who knows the exact formula is the Farmers’ Almanac weather prognosticator who goes by the pseudonym of Caleb Weatherbee,” the organization’s website says. “To protect this proprietary formula, the editors of the Farmers’ Almanac prefer to keep both Caleb’s true identity and the formula a closely guarded brand secret.”
The almanac has provided extended forecasts since 1818, according to its website.
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