Will the metro-east see a white Christmas this year? One factor looks positive
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- NWS reports 10.2 inches at Lambert; metro‑east totals vary, some areas about 5 inches.
- Climate Prediction Center assigns southern IL 40–50% chance of above‑normal precipitation.
- Historical odds for a white Christmas sit at 11–25%; expect driving hazards with any snow.
The holiday season is upon us, and as the greater St. Louis area has recently seen the third-snowiest start to winter on record, Belleville residents may be wondering if they’ll get to enjoy a white Christmas this year.
The National Weather Service St. Louis office reports St. Louis Lambert International Airport, the nearest official snow measuring site to Belleville, has reported 10.2 inches of snow as of Dec. 3.
The typical snowfall amount for this time of year is just 1 inch, Melissa Delia, NWS St. Louis office meteorologist, said in a Dec. 3 interview with the News-Democrat.
Since snowfall amounts are measured at Lambert airport, Delia said some metro-east residents, especially those farther south, may not have seen that much snowfall. Belleville and surrounding areas reported about 5 inches of snow Nov. 29.
Belleville residents may continue to see more snow than usual this year. The federal Climate Prediction Center reports southern Illinois has a 40 to 50% chance of above-normal precipitation from December through February. Temperatures have equal chances of being above or below normal.
Will Belleville see a white Christmas this year?
While it’s certainly not impossible for Belleville to see a white Christmas this year, chances don’t look particularly high.
“It’s disappointing for those who like snow, we’re looking at 11 to 25 percent chance of seeing a white Christmas, which we define as greater than 1 inch of snow on the ground on Christmas,” Delia said.
The 11 to 25% chance of a white Christmas is a historical probability, based on data from 1991 to 2020. Since southern Illinois may see more precipitation this winter than usual, chances might be higher.
The popular Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts southern Illinois will not see a white Christmas this year, but those in central and northeastern Illinois will. The almanac makes forecast predictions based on a secret formula that considers solar science, climatology and meteorology.
For those driving in wintry conditions, Delia said it’s important to keep in mind any amount of snow can be dangerous to drive in, and it’s a good idea to take it slow, leave extra room between yourself and other vehicles and remember braking on snow is difficult.
What will the weather be like this week?
The NWS forecasts Belleville residents can expect temperatures ranging from 10 to 53 degrees Fahrenheit in the coming days, as of Dec. 8. Here’s the forecast:
- Tuesday, Dec. 9: Temperatures from 44 to 53 degrees, with wind gusts as high as 22 miles per hour during the day and 30 mph at night.
- Wednesday, Dec. 10: Temperatures from 27 to 48 degrees, with wind gusts as high as 29 mph.
- Thursday, Dec. 11: Temperatures from 24 to 38 degrees, with mostly cloudy skies.
- Friday, Dec. 12: Temperatures from 10 to 34 degrees, with partly sunny skies during the day and mostly cloudy skies at night.
- Saturday, Dec. 13: Temperatures from 11 to 21 degrees, with partly sunny skies during the day and mostly cloudy skies at night.
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