Metro-east at risk for severe storms, possible tornadoes. See forecast timing
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Metro‑east faces slight risk of severe storms overnight; hail and tornadoes possible.
- Primary threat window runs after midnight Tuesday into early Wednesday, 3–9 a.m.
- Residents urged to use multiple warning methods; NOAA radio and notifications advised.
The metro-east and greater St. Louis region are at a “slight risk” of severe thunderstorms this week with the possibility of hail and tornadoes.
The most likely time for severe thunderstorms to develop in the metro-east will be between 3 and 9 a.m. Wednesday, March 11, according to National Weather Service St. Louis office meteorologist Marshall Pfahler.
“Right now, it looks like thunderstorms will initially develop well to the north of the metro-east, and that will also be when the severe threat is greatest,” Pfahler told the News-Democrat Tuesday morning.
The instability or fuel for the thunderstorms will decrease through the night, and the metro-east is more likely to get thunderstorms later on compared to an earlier threat for central Illinois, so the likelihood for severe storms isn’t as great locally, Pfahler said.
However, it’s still possible Belleville and surrounding areas could see some thunderstorms become severe.
“The main threats will be some isolated damaging winds, maybe some marginally severe hail, like hail up to one inch in diameter,” Pfahler said. “Can’t rule out a tornado, but the threat will be lower than this evening, although not quite zero.”
Since Belleville’s greatest threat timing is overnight, it’s a good idea to make sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings, Pfahler said. If a tornado warning is issued, the Wireless Emergency Alert system will send out a push notification to smart phones, but it’s also wise to have a weather radio or other additional means of receiving warnings.
If tornadoes do develop from the severe thunderstorms, some of them could be strong, or an EF2 or greater, the NWS reports. Ten months after an EF3 tornado tore through St. Louis and dissipated in Edwardsville, killing five people, parts of north St. Louis still haven’t recovered from the damage.
What will the rest of the week look like in Belleville?
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move out of the region Wednesday, with a calmer outlook for the rest of the week. Here’s Belleville’s forecast, from the NWS:
- Wednesday, March 11: Showers and a possible thunderstorm before 1 p.m., then a chance of showers. Temperatures from 34 to 66 degrees.
- Thursday, March 12: Sunny skies during the day and partly cloudy skies at night, with temperatures from 45 to 55 degrees.
- Friday, March 13: Partly sunny skies during the day and mostly cloudy skies at night, with temperatures from 40 to 64 degrees.
- Saturday, March 14: Mostly sunny skies during the day and mostly cloudy skies at night, with temperatures from 52 to 68 degrees.
- Sunday, March 15: Rain likely during the day, with a 70% chance of precipitation. A chance of snow and rain at night, with temperatures from 25 to 62 degrees.
Although meteorological spring has begun, it’s too early to rule out snow for the season, and it may be a rainy spring. The federal Climate Prediction Center reports the metro-east has equal chances of above- or below-normal temperatures from March through May, with a 33 to 40% chance of above-normal precipitation.
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