Will St. Louis Cardinals be sellers at MLB trade deadline? It might not be up to them
Conventional wisdom holds the worst place for a team to be in modern professional sports is stuck in neutral.
A team without championship aspirations, the theory goes, should be willing to strip itself down to the studs within a given season if doing so would allow them to acquire potential future pieces that could spin toward success in the near future.
The St. Louis Cardinals entered the All-Star break two games below .500, eight games behind the Milwaukee Brewers for first place in the National League Central, and 7 1/2 games behind the San Diego Padres for the NL’s second Wild Card slot. Having abdicated their responsibility to make significant and immediate in-season improvements following significant pitching injuries, if ever the team’s front office was going to decide to hold an impromptu fire sale, the lead up to the July 30 trade deadline may be the time.
Unfortunately for the Cardinals, they may not have the available inventory.
A perusal of the players set to enter free agency at the end of the season reveals a handful of prima facie viable targets, but each of those players carries a complication which could prevent a trade from taking place. Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright would be highly coveted by contending teams — imagine either or both reunited with Tony LaRussa in Chicago — but if neither chose to leave this past offseason, it’s hard to imagine either would pursue a path out of St. Louis now.
As veterans of at least 10 Major League seasons and at least five consecutive with the same team, Molina and Wainwright hold no-trade rights. If they were to go, it would be by their own choosing and not with their explicit approval.
Lefty reliever Andrew Miller also holds a full no-trade clause as part of the free agent contract he signed before the 2019 season. Miller has allowed only one earned run since returning from the injured list in June, and his postseason pedigree would make him highly sought after, especially if the Cardinals were willing to include cash to pay down some of the remaining salary owed to him this season.
Miller, though, has been vocal in his opposition to being bought and sold as a deadline commodity. Being traded to Cleveland from the New York Yankees in 2016 particularly rankled him, as Yankees general manager Brian Cashman strongly implied that such a deal wouldn’t take place. And as an important member of the MLBPA’s executive committee, Miller also takes a hardline stance against marquee-level franchises like the Cardinals turning to a non-competitive posture.
The money owed to him is also significant. Miller’s vesting option pays him $12 million this season; he would cost an acquiring team approximately $5 million for the remainder of the season without a pay down from the Cardinals.
Could Kim be on the trading block?
Kwang Hyun Kim is certainly a more affordable option, with less than $2 million remaining on his contract before reaching free agency this winter, but he carries his own set of complicating factors. Kim’s exposure to the big leagues has been limited, and his durability as a starter remains in question.
A source close to Kim also raised the possibility that the Korean lefthander could opt out of the remainder of the season if traded. Kim has been separated from his wife and children for the duration of the last two seasons, and that stress in addition to another temporary uprooting could prompt the veteran lefty to return home and resume his career in the KBO, where he is an established star.
John Gant, who lost his role in the Cardinals starting rotation even as the club entered the break with only three starters healthy, is arbitration eligible for the final time this winter. A team seeking bullpen depth could view him as an upgrade, but likely only at a very modest price point.
Giovanny Gallegos will enter his first year of arbitration this winter at age 30 and would likely draw significant interest, but his value to the Cardinals moving forward would seem to be such that any benefit from maximizing trade interest now would be overwhelmed by how much he can help the club moving forward.
Cubs in similiar spot as Cardinals
The Chicago Cubs entered the break with an identical record to the Cardinals and with a clear statement that they would be sellers at the deadline; indeed, that process began in earnest on Thursday night with the trade of outfielder Joc Pederson to Atlanta in exchange for a fringe prospect playing first base with power at High-A.
If the Cubs felt such a deal was the best they could do for Pederson more than two weeks ahead of the deadline, then they may have revealed that the market is lining up for buyers and could prove stingy for sellers, further disincentivizing any moves to trade off useful players.
Under the DeWitt ownership group, the Cardinals have never chosen to be a pure seller at the deadline, and there’s no reason to believe that trend will change in the near future.
Even if they wanted to shift gears, they may simply not have a choice.
