How much more can Cardinals expect of nearly the same outfield crew as 2022?
When Corey Dickerson entered Cardinals camp in Jupiter, Florida, last spring, he represented a confluence of value, opportunity, and need.
Lacking full confidence that the group of young fielders they had in camp could handle the fourth outfield job and able to secure Dickerson for only one year and $5 million, there was logic to looking outside for a helping hand.
A year later, the Cardinals enter Christmas seemingly set to come to spring training with an almost identical group of outfielders, save for the removal of Harrison Bader to New York.
“As I stand here today, I don’t see there’s something like, oh, I have to go do that,” President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak said Dec. 9 in response to a question about his outfielders.
Instead, the onus will be on Dylan Carlson and Tyler O’Neill to bounce back and Lars Nootbaar to continue his upward trajectory, with Alec Burleson and Juan Yepez asserting themselves and the specter of Jordan Walker looming over the conversation.
The gamble is the same as it ever was for any team believing they can outsmart the marketplace. The Cardinals, assessing their internal options, believe they can receive superior (or at least more cost efficient) production there than they would for the cost of the open market.
That decision could, conceivably, represent a break with some of the retrograde decision making which has led the Cardinals down dead ends in years past. It took, after all, several years and a parcel of unsuccessful bets to realize that medium term deals with lefty relievers of a certain age are unlikely to work out.
The third shelf shopping for Dexter Fowler and Mike Leake — deals that pushed the team’s financial ceiling but not past the floor of useful players — was also repeated, and the Cardinals hope not again with Willson Contreras. For all of the team’s bluster about increasing payroll and for all of their quiet attempts to reign in expectations in its aftermath, there does remain a difference between spending and spending wisely.
Straddling that line means projecting the potential outcomes for Michael Conforto, David Peralta and the like, each of whom carry their own unique risks. It also means acknowledging some of the weaknesses of the current group and determining whether spending either dollars or prospects to shore those up will meaningfully change the team’s fortunes in 2023 and beyond.
None of the current projected bench outfielders, for instance, is a viable option in center field. Manager Oliver Marmol has described that spot as “wide open,” and Mozeliak in one conversation casually listed O’Neill, Nootbaar and Carlson from left to right, conceding that he prefers that alignment while also deferring to his manager for final lineup say.
More options for Cardinals
There are options in the next tier of the minors who can help. Returning Oscar Mercado has experience in center and can hold his own defensively, and rising speedster Mike Antico could force his way into the conversation by midseason.
The Cardinals, clearly, had minimal concerns and saw little value in holding on to a glove-first backup; spare part Ben DeLuzio was unceremoniously jettisoned and the tender deadline and is now darkening doorsteps on the north side of Chicago (or more likely in Iowa).
A year of experience for Burleson and Yepez, too, changes some of the calculation. Neither has anything left to do in the minors, and Yepez at least would perhaps be actively set back by being forced to drag through more time in Triple-A. His first big league opportunity was curtailed in playing time by Albert Pujols but spurred by him in professional development. Finishing with 12 homers and a .447 slugging percentage in 253 MLB at bats, Yepez’s place is well and truly earned.
Burleson put up just nine hits and one homer (against a position player), but also only received 48 at bats in the majors. The extent that he needs more time in the minors seems likely to be determined more by flexibility and the production of others than his own. He just turned 24 and hit .331 with a .532 slugging percentage in mostly a full year at Memphis in 2022; if not now to determine who he is, then when?
Potential for a long summer abounds
And still, Walker remains. One of the top five prospects in baseball, though he hasn’t yet reached Triple-A, there remains an opportunity for him to skip the level altogether. He will come to camp with the ability to hit his way onto the roster and into the starting lineup, answer all the doubts about the outfield makeup, and become the team’s most impactful homegrown position player since two who just retired.
Or, perhaps, a 20-year-old player needs a touch more seasoning and the weight of a team’s ostensible championship aspirations is a touch heavy for his shoulders. Spring training is the time in which they’ll find out, and evidently, this is the group that will show, or not.
“Ultimately, we’re going to judge our offense on what do we get out of our outfield,” Mozeliak said.
If his and the team’s choice is to give internal options sufficient runway to answer that question, then their confidence interval should be both high and narrow. Otherwise, potential for a long summer abounds.