Surprises and disappointments from the first half of the Cardinals’ season
The St. Louis Cardinals resume play on Friday in Arizona ahead of a two-week sprint to the trade deadline, perhaps with the die already cast regarding their path forward.
An uneven first half that resulted from the pairing of some impressive performances with some undeniable disappointments will seemingly leave them willing to subtract rental pieces while taking a hard look at how much of the team must remain intact to stay productive and positive down the stretch.
That they’ve arrived at this spot – and endured that unevenness – is the result of a collection of performances that have both exceeded expectations and fostered disappointments, with three of each examined here.
Exceeded expectations – LHP Matthew Liberatore
Breaking camp as a starter in a mild surprise, Liberatore has done enough in the first half to demonstrate that he can indeed be trusted with a rotation spot moving forward, which settles one difficult roster dilemma in the medium term. His most recent start was his ugliest of the season to date, and there are some concerning trends in his walk rate as he continues to blow past his career high in big league innings.
Some of that workload will likely need to be managed in the second half, but even with a couple clunkers, Liberatore has been dead on a league average pitcher by ERA+. Perhaps he’ll never be the pure frontline starter his prospect pedigree may have implied, but as long as he stays healthy, he’s demonstrated that he can solidly fill out the middle of a big league rotation.
Disappointment – OF Jordan Walker
Walker’s OPS and OPS+ have all declined year over year in what are now parts of three seasons in the big leagues, with his power almost entirely diminished this season. He has only eight extra base hits in 191 plate appearances, contributing to an anemic .295 slugging percentage, and has spent a large portion of the last month on an ill-defined rehab safari in Double-A, first recovering from appendicitis and then working to re-gain his power stroke.
If this was designed to be a season in which players were given adequate runway to demonstrate the amount of trust they’ve earned moving forward, then it’s inarguable that Walker has done the least of that group of young players. Still just 23, there comes a time when prospect fatigue gives way to legitimate concern that it might not work out for a given player in a given situation. If Walker is not yet at that point, it’s on an approaching horizon.
Exceeded expectations – 1B Willson Contreras
It has been a turbulent first three seasons in St. Louis for Contreras, who was first temporarily moved from behind the plate, then suffered a gruesome arm injury while catching, and finally placed permanently at first base. He responded by leading the team in games played, home runs and runs batted in, seemingly benefiting from the lack of wear and tear that accompanies a season of squatting.
Perhaps most notably, he played an outstanding first base, allowing the Cardinals to scarcely miss a step as they prepared to downgrade defensively from Paul Goldschmidt. His six outs above average leave him ranked third in the big leagues by that measure, and he’s been deft both around the bag and at knocking down balls to his left and right, saving extra bases and hits in equal measure. Contreras has answered uncertainty around his ability to play first every day by establishing himself as a no-doubt candidate for a Gold Glove in his first full season at first.
Disappointment – RHP Erick Fedde
Fedde allowed three earned runs in 4 ⅔ innings in his last start before the break, and it says something about his trend line that it was fairly judged an unqualified success. Acquired last year as a feel-good, break-out story in his return from Korea, Fedde also represented a coup in that he was a cost-controlled starter who the Cardinals could, in theory, flip at this year’s deadline to recover some of the asset cost spent in his acquisition.
Now, recovering some of that value is guiding playing time decisions, and the Cardinals are doing their best to put some shine on Fedde to make him movable at all. His walk rate has skyrocketed this year as he’s fought a misbehaving arsenal, and a pitcher who rarely records strikeouts can’t survive with that many free baserunners. In many starts, especially over the last month, Fedde hasn’t, and he will almost certainly not be a Cardinal on August 1.
Exceeded expectations – RHP Phil Maton
Signed on the eve of the regular season – the only big league signing all off-season for the Cardinals – Maton has been invaluable, posting an ERA that was below two for the entire spring until just before the break and pitching his way into being a real candidate for the All-Star game. He too is a free agent at the end of the season and will seemingly have no shortage of suitors on the trade market over the coming weeks.
The decision for the Cardinals, however, will be weighing whatever prospect value they might receive in return for Maton against the positive impact he’s had on their bullpen and the development of young pitchers. He has undoubtedly been a more than worthy replacement for Andrew Kittredge at approximately 40% of Kittredge’s cost; the Cardinals may decide the lesson is that they can always find an equivalent reliever on the market, but it may well turn out that they don’t get lucky for a third time in a row.
Disappointment – RHP Ryan Helsley
Relievers come with volatility, and even as Helsley continues to hold down the back end of the bullpen, his ERA has crept north of three and he’s struggled to locate his fastball on the edges of the zone without getting hammered. Big league hitters can hit 100 if it’s straight and without deception, and Helsley has remained competitive due to his elite breaking ball more than the profile of a flashy pitch which has continued to let him down.
Perhaps the most valuable and prominent of the team’s potential deadline chips, there are no doubt those around the league who are eyeing Helsley warily even as they’re tempted by his raw talent. A positive sign – all indications are that he’s fully healthy, and it’s possible if not likely that other teams might see something they can fix in his delivery or mechanics that bring his fastball back to its prior elite profile.
The Cardinals will be weighing trade offers against what they believe they could recoup this winter by offering Helsley a qualifying offer before he signs somewhere – and hedging against their comfort in his accepting that offer and strolling into free agency without strings a year from now.
This story was originally published July 18, 2025 at 4:45 AM.
