The data behind Pallante’s collapse and the Cardinals Catch-22
Andre Pallante went 8-8 with a 3.78 ERA over 20 starts for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2024, posting an ERA+ that made him 10 percent better than league average. In 2025, he is 6-12 with a 5.44 ERA and a 77 ERA+, 23 percent below league average.
If you look at the seasons through the right prism, they are nearly identical. That is the conundrum for the Cardinals after yet another tough start, and the lack of good options only makes the dilemma more difficult.
“We have to take a look and figure out what’s best for him,” manager Oli Marmol said after Pallante allowed eight runs—seven earned—in five innings in a loss to Pittsburgh on Tuesday night. “Also take into consideration all the other variables of what we have below and what that would look like. ... There’s more moving parts to it, for sure.”
Whether an observer sees the similarities in Pallante’s two most recent seasons depends largely on the data set they choose. By all publicly available metrics, including pitch velocity, spin and release angle, he is coming to the plate with a remarkably consistent repertoire.
A metric called xFIP—expected fielding independent pitching—measures a pitcher’s likely ERA by considering the quality of contact against him and assuming that 10.5 percent of fly balls become home runs. In 2024, Pallante posted an xFIP of 3.89; in 2025, that number is 3.98.
That equalization is designed to flatten out the results of pitchers and remove factors like defense, ballparks, weather and pure bad luck from the evaluation process. But therein lies the rub for Pallante. He’s not giving up home runs on 10.5 percent of fly balls—he’s nearly double that mark, at 18.6 percent, after turning in a mere 9.6 percent rate last season.
The rabbit hole of rates and percentages runs deep and all of the data has value, but ultimately it points in the same direction: everything coming out of Pallante’s hand is mostly the same as it’s always been, but hitters are responding differently. As a result, particularly left-handed hitters and particularly against his four-seam fastball are hitting Pallante at a rate he has never before endured in his four-season career.
It would be easier for the Cardinals if there was something in his pitch quality that revealed the reason for his drastic struggles. In truth, the answer lies in his breaking ball. Even as Pallante generates slightly more swings and misses than previously, he’s still only landing 37.8 percent of his curveballs in the strike zone.
If only one in three curves is a strike, hitters can not only wait for a fastball, they can also get off better swings than before, instead of settling for defensive hacks trying to separate fastball from cutter from curve. When so many curves bounce, hitters can spit on them, and when Pallante comes back into the zone, hitters can pounce.
“That’s kind of the problem, right?” Pallante said. “It’s not something I can just flip a switch. Half the battle is the plan. I feel like I’ve got the plan down, and now it’s just getting to the point where the plan can be executed at a level that’s sufficient to perform in the big leagues.”
Whether that performance continues in the starting rotation is not yet solidified, though Pallante gains a little extra security in the absence of anyone pushing hard from Triple-A, in the same way Michael McGreevy challenged Erick Fedde’s spot earlier this season. The only real prospect in the Memphis rotation, Quinn Mathews, has battled injuries and command issues all season and does not appear to be under real consideration for a call-up.
The Cardinals also believe there’s little point in sending Pallante back to the minors and allowing him to overpower hitters there with a fastball-cutter combination that would not advance his career. The challenge, then, becomes determining whether he is getting closer to making the necessary adjustments for a long career. Eventually, hitters see a pitcher enough times to get used to what’s being offered and adjust accordingly.
If Pallante is not generating awkward swings against his curve and cutter, he is likely to be in trouble, because his fastball alone is simply not the overwhelming pitch he can rely on in tough spots. He tried on Tuesday, and as a result, the Pirates scored more runs and recorded more hits before making their first out than the Cardinals had after their 27th.
“The league is making a real adjustment against him, and he’s having a hard time combatting it,” Marmol said. “But he lives off contact, and when those don’t lead to outs ... he’s left in a really tough position.”
So is his team—and that’s what has to get fixed.
