5 Predictions: How 2026 will shape up for the St. Louis Cardinals
One of the challenges that’s impossible to escape for a team in the midst of a rebuild is the dampening effect on dreams.
As much as fans like to follow the day-to-day minutia of a team, that interest is largely backed by the idea that things will improve, the tide will turn, and a parade is over the horizon. If a team says out loud that the horizon is not yet even visible in the distance, it’s difficult to keep people dialed in.
None of the following predictions for the 2026 St. Louis Cardinals have to do with championship aspirations or short-term success. That would be perhaps the boldest prediction of all.
This is a much more conservative set, but one that logically follows from all that can be known until the data set changes.
1. Alec Burleson signs an extension which takes him into free agency and cements him at the center of the lineup for the next five years.
The only player currently on the roster with a guaranteed contract beyond 2026 is Nolan Arenado, and the Cardinals continue to aggressively shop him for trade. That might create financial flexibility, but it also threatens organizational instability.
Finding a flag bearer—someone who can sock some dingers and sell some t-shirts—is good for fan and clubhouse culture alike.
Burleson, who will take over full time at first base this season following the departure of Willson Contreras, has three more years of team control and is projected to earn $3.5 million next season, his first in the arbitration system.
His offensive numbers have steadily improved over his three seasons in the big leagues, and he will have every opportunity to pile up totals in the middle of the lineup in 2026, Any challenger to his spot is seemingly years off in the prospect pipeline.
A five-year deal which takes Burleson to free agency after his age-31 season and guarantees him a significant payday seems like a tidy piece of business for both sides.
It’s the sort of mid-term investment that the Cardinals could jettison early, if they were so inclined, but one that also keeps a quality big league hitter in place through what could be some lean years.
2. The Cardinals steal 120 bases for the first time since 1999.
Last year’s team swiped 89 bags, the first year they’ve been below 90 since 2021. In 2023, that total was 101. The 2019 team peaked at 116, but they have not touched the 120 plateau since Édgar Rentería, Fernando Tatis and J.D. Drew paced a fourth-place team at the end of the last century.
Fighting through a bum knee, Masyn Winn swiped only nine bags last season, down two from 2024. Victor Scott II led the team with 34, but only Jordan Walker—with 10—also reached double digits.
Given that Walker only posted a .278 on base percentage — and that Scott finished the year just barely above .300 — each of their rates was more impressive than it may seem at first blush.
JJ Wetherholt recorded 23 steals across two levels of the minors last season. Nathan Church, who figures to be the fourth outfielder, nabbed 16 in the minors but only one in the big leagues. With the addition of those two plus a healthy Winn — and without the kind of thump in the lineup that would make them hesitant to go — 120 steals is within reach.
The Cardinals jumped to that 2019 total after just 63 in 2018; big leaps are possible.
3. JJ Wetherholt leads the team in starts at second base.
Playing time predictions can be something of a tap in, and Wetherholt is no exception. The Cardinals intend to give him every opportunity to earn a starting job in the infield in the opening day lineup, and the incentives that previously existed to suppress a player’s service time now seem to cut firmly in the opposite direction.
If Wetherholt is ready, he will arrive, and they will get out of his way.
Second or third base are the obvious landing spots once the trade market shakes out, and while he got some time at third in the minors last season, second seems to be a much cleaner fit.
Utilizing his athleticism while keeping him in a position to see balls from an up-the-middle angle will simplify his process and allow him to keep swinging away.
A bonus sub-prediction: José Fermín is second at second, behind Wetherholt. After years of being surprised that he’s been able to hang onto his spot on the roster, it seems appropriate to zag.
He can get the bat to the ball, he’s right-handed, and he’s easy going. Sounds like a regular utility guy.
4. Cooper Hjerpe and Brycen Mautz each make between eight and 10 appearances in the big leagues – Hjerpe as a reliever and Mautz as a starter.
The two lefties added to the 40-player roster this winter have different paths to the big leagues in the coming months, but each will likely need to contribute.
Hjerpe underwent Tommy John surgery in April and should be back to a full competitive schedule by the All-Star break. Mautz took a leap forward as a starter at Double-A Springfield and should feature prominently in the Triple-A Memphis rotation.
Last season’s all-encompassing pitching health is not likely to be repeated, and starter depth will be tested. Mautz will figure prominently into that depth, and it seems inevitable that his turn will come up when his number needs to be called.
Hjerpe will be rehabbed carefully, but the Cardinals don’t have much lefty depth in the bullpen, and his funky delivery and difficult arm angle have always left some wondering if his future was as a reliever. He’ll get a chance to test that theory in 2026, as a thinning out of the organization at the deadline should be enough to get him his first cup of coffee.
5. The Cardinals announce a succession plan for ownership.
Chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. turns 85 in August. His son, team president Bill DeWitt III, has long been the head of the business side of the organization, but the team brought in a senior executive (Anuk Karunaratne) under him last season who has become a de facto public conduit from the business to the fans, offering a fresh voice and face while simultaneously taking some items from DeWitt III’s plate.
With the transition to Chaim Bloom’s administration completed and the renovation of the Jupiter facility on track to wrap up before spring training starts, the last remaining major piece of unsettled business is the television rights deal, which has long been under DeWitt III’s purview. The path is seemingly clear for a change.
The Cardinals, knowing they’re asking fans to embrace a new era, might see the benefit in something like a full changeover. Seeing DeWitt Jr. step into an emeritus position and shift the responsibilities of the control person to the next generation is something that’s on the horizon, and it feels like the timing is right.
