How will the Cardinals solve the Nolan Arenado problem?
How do you solve a problem like Nolan Arenado?
For the second consecutive offseason, the St. Louis Cardinals are trying to trade their future Hall of Fame third baseman, both for his own sake and the team’s. Arenado is not getting younger, and the team does not anticipate being competitive during the remaining two years on his contract.
As a result, it makes sense for all involved to find him a soft landing with another organization that can satiate his competitive urges.
Last winter, though, Arenado limited his list of acceptable destinations to just five teams. The Cardinals reached an agreement with one of those teams, the Houston Astros, but Arenado then vetoed the deal using his no-trade protection. That decision was made largely due to Arenado’s concerns about Houston’s commitment to competition, given that the Astros traded away outfielder Kyle Tucker in the days prior.
In the roughly 13 months since, there has been little traction. Even with a significantly expanded list of acceptable destinations this winter, a deal has not materialized. With a little more than a month until pitchers and catchers are due to report to spring training—a spring training that Arenado will step away from in order to compete for the Puerto Rican team in the World Baseball Classic—the clock is ticking loudly for both player and team to find the right fit.
“I don’t feel any differently than I did early in the offseason,” president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom said Sunday during an interview with Tom Ackerman on KMOX. “Both that [a trade] makes sense and also that we will find it at some point.”
One option that Bloom has shot down at least twice, forcefully, is releasing Arenado and assuming the full burden of the roughly $37 million the Cardinals still owe on his contract. Such a move would immediately relieve whatever roster logjam Arenado is causing, but it would come at a steep financial cost and with no hope for return.
Cardinals ownership has approved the transfer of $28 million to the Boston Red Sox this winter in two separate trades in which Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray left town. That money, though, came conceptually attached to the value of the prospects returned in those deals. It’s also money already spent, and releasing Arenado would leave the team swallowing more than $60 million for players no longer with the club—a significant stretch for this ownership group.
Trading Arenado is not a necessity in the sense that his presence is causing friction in the clubhouse or behind the scenes, at least for now. He has weathered the team’s downturn by publicly shouldering a significant portion of the blame and has made it clear he holds no ill will toward anyone in St. Louis, a marked departure from his acrimonious exit five years ago from the Colorado Rockies.
There also is not, in the strictest sense, a true roster jam. Even with Arenado at third base, the Cardinals still could turn over second base to JJ Wetherholt as soon as he’s ready, possibly even on Opening Day. The tradeoff in playing time would likely come at the expense of Nolan Gorman. After more than 1,200 plate appearances and a roughly 33% strikeout rate over the past three seasons, some within the organization believe Gorman has had more than enough opportunity to define himself.
Even if the Cardinals do not find a desirable enough trade package for Brendan Donovan—and every indication is still that he will be moved in the coming weeks—Donovan could slide to left field as Lars Nootbaar recovers from offseason heel surgery and grab full-time at-bats as they arise, including some at third base in a platoon with Arenado.
Last season was the third-worst of Arenado’s career by OPS+, besting only his rookie year and the tumultuous 2020 season. In those two years, though, he was by every measure an elite defender. Last season, while still solid and among the league’s best, he was something less than that. In 2020, in just 48 games, Arenado compiled 1.5 wins above replacement; last season, in 107 games, he reached just 1.3.
After finishing third in MVP voting in 2022, Arenado’s OPS has declined by roughly 55 points each year: from .774 in 2023 to .719 in 2024 to .666 in 2025. After returning from a series of arm injuries, he acknowledged he had perhaps pushed through more than he realized and was hopeful that strength and power would return with rest.
He managed two home runs in September and bounced back to a .713 OPS that month in 42 plate appearances after posting a dismal .440 mark in 61 plate appearances in July. Perhaps that is indeed a sign that rest and strengthening could bring him back to an above-average hitter who remains capable of superlative defense at third.
Any rival evaluator, though, will see a player who will be 35 next season, is on a steady downward offensive slope, and is coming off a season in which he missed a career-high amount of time with injury. That player is also owed a significant amount of money, although the Cardinals expect to kick in at least $15 million of that in a trade.
Under those circumstances, and with the déjà vu of Alex Bregman lingering on the free agent market for a second consecutive winter, it is not a surprise that a solution has yet to reveal itself. When Bloom took over in Boston, his biggest initial challenge was being tasked with moving on from Mookie Betts, despite all parties understanding that it was a bad idea both on and off the field. This time, Arenado is the superstar in question, and it is broadly accepted that a trade is the best possible outcome. The question is whether it can be made to happen.