Cubs signing of Bregman ratchets up offseason pressure on the Cardinals
The scenario that would foreclose most possibilities of a fluke run to contention for other teams in the National League Central unfolded over the weekend, as the Chicago Cubs reached a substantial free-agent agreement with third baseman Alex Bregman.
What has largely separated the Cubs from divisional dominance in recent years has been ownership’s reluctance to fully flex its financial muscle and act as the biggest economic force in the division.
Whether the Bregman deal represents a true sea change or simply a one-time exception, it is enough on its own merits to close some of those barely open doors. In doing so, however, it helps clarify things for the St. Louis Cardinals, at a time when players and teams alike are starting to feel the pressure of the coming season.
Last spring, as Nolan Arenado reported to Cardinals camp with the strangeness of an acknowledged and failed trade request hanging over his head, the last real hope of a trade materializing was with the Boston Red Sox. When they signed Bregman instead, it became clear that Arenado would be playing out the season in St. Louis, and the parties would regroup over the winter.
The question now is whether Boston’s interest in Arenado was ever genuine or merely a leverage play to push Bregman into a less favorable negotiating position. As Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow is excoriated for allowing Bregman to leave after trading away Rafael Devers to make room in the infield, it is clear the moves following the weekend’s big signing will be his best chance to regain energy and fan support — to say nothing of fielding a stronger lineup.
Bregman’s signing followed a pronouncement late last week that the Arizona Diamondbacks would be holding on to second baseman Ketel Marte, as well as reports that free agent Bo Bichette has meetings scheduled this week with the suddenly serious Philadelphia Phillies. These are perhaps all incremental changes in the market, but any changes at all are welcome after weeks of holiday stagnation.
The Cardinals would still greatly prefer to trade Brendan Donovan than to hold on to him into the season. With two years of team control remaining, any team acquiring Donovan will want to get the maximum benefit from his presence, much of which comes from his ability to patch holes as they develop throughout the regular season.
The Cardinals, too, are eager to open space for JJ Wetherholt, though Lars Nootbaar’s offseason heel surgery may well create the necessary lineup vacancy to start the season.
Arenado’s market is somewhat different in that he is not perceived as the kind of trajectory-altering talent he was during the first decade of his storied career. While there is no doubt his numbers suffered due to playing through injury and Busch Stadium’s oppressive offensive environment, the line between explanations and excuses can get blurry when it comes time for trade talks.
What the Cardinals see as proof he would bounce back in a different environment can be perceived by rival teams as proof of decline, and trade talks thus remain at an impasse.
The connective tissue between Arenado, Bregman, Donovan and the rest is the finite number of available spots across the league. Boston now finds itself in need of an infielder. The Phillies have long been at least curious about moving on from Alec Bohm. The Los Angeles Angels moved on from Anthony Rendon and need a third baseman. The Seattle Mariners and Cardinals have had ongoing discussions over Donovan and JoJo Romero, and that might still come to fruition.
The deeper-than-expected freeze of the hot stove is seen around the league as less about concerns over upcoming collective bargaining agreement negotiations and more about the new reality of how teams do business. Inertia and cost certainty are powerful forces; teams that hold on to their players and prospects never have to worry about being embarrassed when former players succeed elsewhere or when new additions struggle.
That, perhaps more than anything, has put the brakes on what the Cardinals hoped would be a fully kinetic winter. The trades with Boston that sent out Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray were big steps, but more work remains, and the Cardinals are not fully in control of its pace. Perhaps one more trade with the Red Sox is in the offing. Perhaps the looming march of the calendar really is about to shake things loose.
What the Cubs did over the weekend is bad for the Cardinals in that it demonstrates a division rival waking up and seizing the kind of control that remains out of reach in St. Louis. Yet it may also have done them a favor if it encourages vital business to get done.
It takes more than two to tango in the modern marketplace, but breaking the ice is the best way to get teams moving.
