Amid success, Blues confront an uncertain future. Namely, what becomes of Pietrangelo?
The St. Louis Blues exited 2019 riding a wave of success without precedent in franchise history. At the dawn of 2020, those good feelings seem certain to persist through at least the NHL All-Star Game, hosted in St. Louis later this month.
On the horizon await clouds of uncertainty and discomfiture, and they’re swirling around the status of the first man in Blues history to hoist the Stanley Cup.
Defenseman and team captain Alex Pietrangelo is set to become an unrestricted free agent on July 1, and he and the Blues have yet to come to terms on an extension that would keep the franchise cornerstone in town.
Pietrangelo, who turns 30 on Jan. 18, would likely command a seven-year deal which could approach $70 million in value on the open market. Those numbers may be difficult to swallow for the Blues, who can extend Pietrangelo for an eighth year under the terms of the NHL’s collective bargaining agreement.
Blues general manager Doug Armstrong may have acted to preempt the loss of Pietrangelo earlier this fall by trading for defenseman Justin Faulk from the Carolina Hurricanes and subsequently signing him to a contract extension through the 2025-26 season.
Faulk, whose primary skill set rests in his ability to generate offense from the back end, started slowly in St. Louis. He recorded 12 points in the season’s first 41 games, putting him on pace for his lowest full season total since registering 22 in only 66 games played in his rookie season.
Faulk’s deal, though, is not as strong a commitment as it may at first appear to be.
Faulk and the expansion draft
With Seattle set to join the NHL as its 32nd team for the 2021-22 season, an expansion draft awaits in the summer of 2021. Faulk’s contract extension notably did not include a no-movement clause, meaning that the Blues would not be required to protect him from selection in that draft.
Ron Francis, who is currently Seattle’s first general manager, was in that same role for several years when Faulk played for Carolina. Given that the unprecedented success of the expansion Vegas Golden Knights will leave Seattle hungry to compete from the outset, Faulk might be an attractive selection as a cornerstone defenseman for a new team.
Francis’s familiarity with Faulk could help drive that decision.
The Blues seem certain to protect Colton Parayko in that draft, though he will have only one year remaining on his current contract when it commences.
Another spot would seem destined for the puck-moving lefty Vince Dunn, leaving only one protection slot available under the normal configuration. If Pietrangelo leaves town, that’s likely to be Faulk.
If the Blues extend their captain, though, they could seek to use the expansion draft as salary cap relief.
Pegging Petro’s worth
The departure of a team captain via free agency is something the Blues have endured in the recent past.
David Backes left for Boston following a run to the Western Conference Final in 2016, and the contract he signed with the Bruins quickly became one of the NHL’s worst as his years of rough physical play quickly caught up with his aging body.
Backes, who is close friends with Pietrangelo, watched his team lose the conclusion of the 2019 Stanley Cup Final from the press box.
Recent comparable contract extensions have been steep. Perhaps the closest analogue is Washington’s John Carlson, who was set to reach free agency after the Capitals won the Stanley Cup in 2018. Carlson instead signed an eight-year, $64 million deal on the eve of free agency which will allow him to wrap up his career in DC.
Erik Karlsson’s deal with San Jose, signed a year after Carlson’s, is also for eight years, but is worth $92 million. The $11.5 million-per-season hit to San Jose’s salary cap was shocking at the time but now looks as though it could quickly become an albatross as he ages.
Pietrangelo’s deal is likely to come in somewhere between Carlson and Karlsson in both total and average annual values, but it will require a steep commitment. The Blues under Armstrong have resisted pulls to sentimentality and have managed hockey operations with the calculation that most would argue is necessary in a league with a hard salary cap.
How long can he last?
It’s impossible to say for sure how Pietrangelo will age. His game relies neither on blazing speed nor on overt physicality; he sees and thinks the game on an elite level, and those are skills that should ripen gracefully over time.
Al MacInnis, who played into his 40s, benefited from similar gifts. MacInnis’s career being ended by sudden injury shouldn’t give the Blues pause. What might, though, is the availability of internal replacements.
Faulk is signed. Parayko will soon be due an extension, but could mature into a superior player to Pietrangelo. Ryan O’Reilly is under long-term contract and could slip seamlessly into the captain’s role.
Pietrangelo himself will have a decision to make.
Perhaps, like his youth teammate John Tavares, he’s always harbored desires of playing in Toronto. Perhaps he’d be excited for a new challenge somewhere unexpected. Perhaps he’s spending every day crossing his fingers hoping that the phone rings with the offer from the Blues for which he’s been waiting.
Whenever Pietrangelo’s time with the Blues ends, the book will close on an historic chapter in team history. As one of the franchise’s most prolific scorers and its first championship captain, his number seems destined for eventual retirement in the rafters of Enterprise Center.
The accolades will come in time, but the on-ice contributions are coming now. Whether they continue to manifest in St. Louis remains an open question.
