Mary Miller is proudly pro-Trump. What about IL Republicans Mike Bost and Rodney Davis?
The GOP has all but split into two parties — one that wants to sustain former President Donald Trump’s dominance, and another that wants to move on.
But not all Illinois Republicans in Congress have established their brands.
No one knows how popular Trump will be less than a year from now when Illinois holds its March primary. The election could be a contest of who can persuade voters that their devotion to Trump and Trumpism is purest, or not.
And which Republican Party will southern Illinois voters want to be a part of?
The answer could mean the difference between incumbent GOP congressmen keeping their seats, or losing them to candidates who pledge fealty to Trump.
The primary stakes could rise with Illinois Democrats expected to make life tough for Republicans by redrawing their districts following the 2020 Census.
Two Illinois Republican Congress members have made clear which side they’ll be on come the primaries.
U.S. Rep. Mary Miller, R-Oakland, makes no qualms about her enduring support for the former president, while U.S. Rep. Adam Kinzinger of northern Illinois continues his outspoken criticism.
U.S. Reps. Mike Bost of Murphysboro and Rodney Davis of Taylorville remained firmly in the middle Wednesday, when an informal vote put Republicans to the test. Bost did not say publicly whether he supported the removal of U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming from congressional leadership for her criticism of Trump. Davis told a Politico reporter he missed the voice vote, and if he had been there, he would have supported Cheney.
Miller was clear: Cheney, who said she’d do everything she could to prevent Trump from getting “anywhere near the Oval Office” again, is not fit to lead House Republicans. Kinzinger supported Cheney, who he said was being punished for speaking the truth about the integrity of the 2020 presidential election.
Bost and Davis both called for party unity and said the GOP has bigger problems to worry about. Namely, creating “a positive vision for working families” and ensuring “that the Washington Democrats’ far left agenda does not become the law of the land,” as Bost put it in an emailed statement.
As redistricting plays out in Springfield largely behind closed doors, speculation continues about whether Democrats will try to pit Bost against Miller, Davis against Miller or some other combination.
If one of the more senior congressmen is forced to face her or another vocal pro-Trump candidate in a primary, they may be forced to begin taking sides soon in the Republican split.
Bost, Davis and redistricting
Both Bost and Davis point to their history of supporting Trump’s policies. But as Cheney’s ouster demonstrated, that’s not always enough to win over his loyalists.
Cheney has a more conservative voting record than her proposed replacement, Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, but Stefanik openly supports Trump and he named her as his preferred successor.
Staying quiet may suffice, as House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy suggested this week. Cheney’s outspoken criticism of Trump had become a distraction, he said.
Bost and Davis emphasized their support for Trump while he was in office.
“I don’t spend any time bad-mouthing Trump in any way, shape or form,” Bost said in an interview with the BND.
Bost’s 12th district is made up of “very, very strong Trump areas,” with the exception of Carbondale and East St. Louis, the congressman added. And Davis’ district is becoming more conservative if the 2020 election is any indication — he increased his lead in a rematch against a competitive Democratic candidate.
Davis said he’s not worried about losing his seat or running against another Republican in a primary, especially as his district increasingly rejects Democrats such as Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker.
“I’ve been nothing but consistent in my time in Congress and I’ll remain consistent,” Davis said. “ ... Governor Pritzker and other Democrats are continuing to to take up that progressive mantle. (Voters) are frustrated. They don’t feel people in the Democratic Party listen to them anymore. They’ve been showing up at the ballot box, going out and voting Republican, and they voted in a big way for President Trump.”
Yet Bost and Davis both acknowledge Joe Biden is the rightful president. Davis recognized Biden’s win weeks before the Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. Bost objected to certifying election from two states because of how they conducted their elections, but he said he never thought Biden hadn’t won.
“Once their votes are certified, that’s it,” Bost said. “I hope he’s the president because the amount of letters I’ve been sending complaining about things, I hope I’ve been sending them to the right guy.”
Acknowledging Biden’s win could be a liability with Trump voters who stick unwaveringly to the unfounded belief that Democrats stole the election.
While there’s no predicting how the country will feel a year from now, Biden has already racked up more popularity compared to Trump’s early days in office.
At the latest count, Biden was enjoying nearly 53% approval at 113 days into his presidency while Trump had 41% at the same point, according to the political metrics tracking website FiveThirtyEight. Trump’s online visibility was also diminished this year after Twitter and Facebook indefinitely banned him from their platforms.
There’s still time for Bost and Davis to set the tone for potential 2022 primary campaigns, but not much. Candidates will have to file and start circulating petitions in November, Bost said, making campaigning “a real challenge.”
“People don’t know where to file or when to file or where to circulate petitions,” he said.
Eliminating a Republican from southern Illinois is becoming more complicated as the region shifts increasingly conservative, the congressman added. Putting Bost, from deep southern Illinois, into the same district with Miller, who lives in the northern portion of her sprawling district, is “a hard draw,” Bost said.
“I may be up against another Republican but one that’s not already there,” Bost said.
The job of eliminating Republicans will only get harder regardless of Trump’s influence on the party, Davis said.
“It’s a lot different than 10 years ago demographically. Southern Illinois and central Illinois has become much more Republican,” Davis said. “ ... What we’ve seen is blue-collar workers, not just in Illinois but across America, have become solidly Republican voters. And that’s helped me win this race, even a couple close ones, these past few years.”
This story was originally published May 13, 2021 at 5:00 AM.
